News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Dow Jones will look to earnings from Apple, which was once the largest component of the index. Get your #Dowjones market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/X9sHddneM4 https://t.co/yhKKhjd7Kr
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BNJ5uTKz1A https://t.co/x0YxwlKWaR
  • Relief rally ahead for $AUDNZD? Bullish RSI divergence at key psychological support (1.0600) suggests a rebound back towards the 21-MA (1.0626) and 50-MA (1.0659) could be on the cards Conversely, a break below 1.0590 probably opens the door for further losses. $AUD $NZD https://t.co/1zUvYXyLBh
  • WTI Crude Oil fell to a fresh four-month-low this morning. This fresh low broke through range support that’s held for the better part of two months. Get your #crudeoil technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/UMeWEIrTSh https://t.co/a3Ujc3Rf2z
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.42% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.59% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/vspt9gv2qH
  • Nasdaq futures pivot sharply lower in the wake of earnings from $AMZN, $GOOGL, $FB and $AAPL, which comprise over 35% of the tech-heavy index collectively. $NQ_F $NDX still trading positive on the day. https://t.co/w5yqbxsqjb https://t.co/4jxdwQY8yo
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.13% Silver: -0.55% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Lgi1Jei5qJ
  • Apple earnings: EPS $0.73 vs $0.71 est Revenue $64.70B vs est $63.47B $AAPL
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.31%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 66.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/k2e06fEjoh
  • ECB Pre-Commits to More Stimulus: ECB’s Lagarde had stated that the GC were in agreement that given the current backdrop, risks were clearly tilted to the downside. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/KPjoDcQ0D0 https://t.co/vV1nprDCKL
Crude Oil Torn Between Earnings, Fiscal Stimulus Updates & Brexit Woes

Crude Oil Torn Between Earnings, Fiscal Stimulus Updates & Brexit Woes

2020-10-11 04:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

Oil Fundamental Outlook: Bullish

  • Crude oil prices could rise on Q3 earnings data and fiscal stimulus hopes
  • But Brent may pull back if spike in Covid-19 cases means more lockdowns
  • Volatility from Brexit may echo across markets and undermine risk appetite
Advertisement

Corporate Earnings Cascade

Third-quarter earnings will be sweeping markets this week, with big-name banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock reporting. Other major non-financial firms include Johnson & Johnson, Alcoa, UnitedHealth and United Airlines. Stronger-than-expected figures could offset growing pessimism around growing coronavirus cases (more on that below).

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

If these firms generally beat market expectations, we could see investor sentiment get a lift and help push growth-anchored assets like crude oil higher. Having said that, virus-sensitive industries like travel and hospitality may disappoint when it comes to earnings considering the cycle-sensitive nature of their sector. Having said that, overwhelmingly positive earnings from other firms may offset the losses in this industry.

Chart showing Airline Industry Performance

Source: Bloomberg

The airline industry has not yet recovered and continues to remain vulnerable to lockdown policies by governments in response to the rise of Covid-19 cases. The index above is a capitalization-weighted benchmark of the leading airlines stocks which shows that on balance it remains far below its pre-March plunge. Their distress is so evident that executive and legislative branches of the US are now fighting over it.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Fiscal Stimulus Talks Remain Up in the Air

After a confusing round of tweets, President Donald Trump has asked policymakers to sign individual, targeted stimulus package bills. One includes another round of $1,200 stimulus checks with another targeting the airline industry. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come out against the idea of standalone bills, advocating instead for a single, all-encompassing aid package.

Markets have been held hostage to these ongoing and sporadic developments as effects from the provisions of the last stimulus bill fizzle out. Monetary authorities and lawmakers have stressed the necessity of government stepping in to create more demand since the central bank alone cannot create demand. This greater emphasis on fiscal stimulus has made markets pay more attention to these erratic developments.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

Brexit: Almost…There

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set a self-imposed deadline for October 15 to be the final day for Brussels and London to hammer out a final agreement. Tension over fisheries continues to be the main sticking point in negotiations, though the British Pound rose last week on the back of progress. Having said that, the risks remain high, and so too the potential for volatility.

The Prime Minister has threatened to walk away if adequate progress has not been made. The PM has warned businesses that the new regulator landscape in a no-deal scenario could disrupt supply chains and weaken already-precarious growth prospects. As I wrote about in my guideline on how to trade politics: “[with] eroding fundamentals, markets become increasingly sensitive to political risks as their capacity for inducing market-wide volatility is amplified”.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES