Markets Weekly Outlook: US Dollar, Dow Jones, Australian Dollar, Crude Oil
US benchmark stock indexes – such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite – aimed cautiously higher this past week. Yet, Wall Street has been struggling to find material upside follow-through since late April with the aggressive pace in gains since March noticeably ebbing. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar were unable to follow equities.
Most of the upbeat tone occurred early on in the week as Moderna reported degrees of success in a virus vaccine trial. Yet investors’ confidence waned after this was critiqued and as China unveiled a national security law on Hong Kong that sent the Hang Seng tumbling 5.56% on Friday. The haven-linked US Dollar and similarly-behaving Japanese Yen cautiously rose this past week.
Growth-oriented crude oil has been on the rise, suggesting markets may be looking forward to gradual lockdown easing measures across the globe. Central bankers have been warning about the long-term impact on growth, particularly if additional virus waves unfold. Over 38 million citizens in the world’s largest economy have filed for unemployment claims. This may top 40m ahead.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Sentiment data will reveal how attitudes are shaping in a nation where 2/3 of GDP is in consumption. Australia’s Prime Minister speaks to the National Press Club in Canberra as tensions with China brew. These woes may bring back trade war fears, complicating efforts to economically recover from the virus.
The long-term outlook for the Euro has been boosted significantly by a Franco-German proposal for a €500 billion coronavirus Recovery Fund, even though an agreement is not yet close.
Gold prices may face heightened liquidation pressure as US-China tensions over Hong Kong heat up ahead of US GDP data amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The Australian Dollar market is headed for a bare domestic data cupboard which will once again leave overall market risk appetite in charge. This may well mean it remains stuck in its current range.
The possibility of a Covid-19 cure by year end keeps market sentiment high despite ongoing political tensions
The US Dollar may find some strength if tensions between the US and China keep rising, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook amid the coronavirus outbreak.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq will look for developments in US-China tensions while the DAX 30 awaits a string of regional data. Possible coronavirus vaccines may also influence sentiment in the week ahead.
Crude oil sold-off Friday on news that China is looking to introduce stringent new security laws in Hong Kong, damaging global risk appetite.
S&P 500 faces pivotal resistance, while FTSE 100 continues to trade in rangebound fashion.
have enjoyed impressive gains in recent weeks but momentum seems to ebbing on approach to $1800/oz. A reversal downward may be brewing ahead.
EUR/USD rates can’t quite get legs beneath them during their breakout, while GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside and USD/JPY tracks global equity markets higher. The net-result is a DXY Index that continues to trade sideways.
US DOLLAR WEEKLY PERFORMANCE AGAINST CURRENCIES AND GOLD
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