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  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • “The UK and EU have agreed to return to the negotiating table to try to agree a post-#Brexit trade deal. But on Friday, a joint statement said ‘significant divergences’ remained.” - BBC News #GBP
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here:
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here:
  • The rising wedge is a popular reversal pattern that is predictive in nature and can give traders a clue to the direction and distance of the next price move. Incorporate the rising wedge in your trading strategy and learn more here:
  • Both the S&P 500 and $EURUSD will enter the coming week with momentum to their back. What can trip up the rallies? What could keep them going? My overview for the week ahead:
  • After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Triangle patterns have three main variations and appear frequently in the forex market. These patterns provide traders with greater insight into future price movement and the possible resumption of the current trend. Learn about triangles here:
  • Continuation patterns can present favorable entry levels to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Use continuation patterns in your technical analysis here:
Dow Jones and FTSE 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead

Dow Jones and FTSE 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead

2020-03-01 12:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst

Equity Analysis and News

  • Dow Jones | Catastrophic Losses as Coronavirus Hits
  • FTSE 100 | UK and EU to Lock Horns in Brexit Talks
Stock Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

Dow Jones | Catastrophic Losses as Coronavirus Hits

Catastrophic losses across global equity markets as the coronavirus hits back with a soaring number of cases outside of China. US equities saw its 4th largest weekly drop since 1927, falling over 13% while US treasury yields crashed to a record low (10yr yielding 1.16% at time of writing) as markets aggressive price in Fed easing (Figure 1). The question that is on investors minds is what the negative impact will be and for how long it will last, however, the authorities yet to sufficiently contain the spread of the virus, it will be a while until this question is answered. Another focal point for markets will be the potential response from central bankers, However, despite the large repricing of near term easing from the Fed, rate setters have yet to signal that such action is needed.

Figure 1. Aggressive Market Pricing for Fed Stimulus

Rate cut expectations

Source: Refinitiv

The Chinese Manufacturing PMI will provide the first notable signs of the impact that the coronavirus has had. Although, what the number will print is anyone’s guess given the large spread of forecaster expectations. At the back end of the week, the latest NFP report will be released, however, given the current narrative that has dictated risk sentiment, the data is not expected to have a notable impact.

Poll summary

Source: Refinitiv

Dow Jones Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame

Dow Jones Price Chart

Source: IG Charts

FTSE 100 | UK and EU to Lock Horns in Brexit Talks

Aside from the fears pertaining to the spread of the coronavirus, UK assets will be increasingly focused on Brexit once again. Both the UK and EU have announced their mandates for negotiations with trade talks due to commence from next week. However, given the notable differences between the two parties, talks are expected to get off to a difficult start and thus the FTSE 100 may continue to struggle.

UK Stance

EU Stance

No aligment over regulation

Level playing field

No extension of transition period

Willing to have extension depending on the UK's fullfilment of other obligations

Control over fisheries

Current equal access to fishing waters should be maintained

Control over immigration

No free movement of goods and services without the free movement of people

Brexit Roadmap

FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Dow Jones and FTSE 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.