News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • While the rise in yields is weighing on risk trends, carry trade didn't seem to take the hit. In fact, the charge in US yields seems to have far outweighed the de-risking from $USDJPY's perspective: https://t.co/KpOpgopOep
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.69% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.81% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.90% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/8Tvotykz9y
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.33% Gold: -0.69% Silver: -2.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/faJTbi16VK
  • AUD/USD now off daily lows, remains much weaker as a result of broad US Dollar strength $AUDUSD https://t.co/OkdKWbepAR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XXOjh5LmaB
  • Silver price action stalls between Moving Averages. Platinum prices currently confined by Fibonacci Support. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/Nbl8FDmfps https://t.co/VyuZzP8w2q
  • US Markets at the Close $NDX 12464.0 -1.73% $SPX 3768.49 -1.34% $DJI 30924.14 -1.11%
  • USD/JPY stronger during trade, now pushing towards 108 level $USDJPY https://t.co/GemouFGvHF
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.52% FTSE 100: -0.53% France 40: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jsQ36v1JJy
  • USD/CAD put in a test at the 1.2500 psychological level last week, but bulls following the falling wedge for topside breakouts may have to wait for a bit longer. Get your $USDCAD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/81i2hiJT53 https://t.co/G0tuoC80CH
Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Peter Hanks, Strategist
Dow Jones 2-Hour Price Chart

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Outlooks:

  • The Dow Jones and Nasdaq pulled back last week after previously ignoring weakening fundamentals
  • The DAX 30 will look to stave off a deeper decline with a chunk of German economic data due
  • Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 will look to maintain its valuation after a significant GDP contraction

Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Forecast

Outlook: Neutral

At the beginning of last week it looked as though the Dow Jones and Nasdaq were impervious to the slew of fundamental concerns that had worked to spark significant developments in the foreign exchange, commodity and bond markets. As the week progressed, however, risk aversion finally materialized and the US equity market came under pressure – a long awaited development for some.Looking ahead, price action in gold and the Australian Dollar could suggest the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are susceptible to further declines.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – February 2020)

Dow Jones Price Forecast

Day Trading the Dow Jones: Strategies, Tips & Trading Signals

To be sure, the global economy is under threat. Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus, major economies like Germany and Japan had already begun to show signs of weakness and global shipping was on the decline. Now that the world’s second largest economy – one that possesses significant manufacturing responsibility – has had to quarantine multiple cities and shutter businesses for weeks, the pressure may be excruciating.

S&P 500 and Global Trade DHL

While central banks have looked to ward off prior slowdowns with monetary policy, many of the traditional avenues have already been explored which has left central banks with less ammunition to fight a deeper contraction should one materialize. That being said, the bearish price action that took hold on Thursday and Friday does not mean the global economy is destined for ruin and stocks are about to plunge.

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2020?

However, it does indicate that some investors have grown weary of current stock valuations given the broader outlook. In turn, investor sentiment stands at a critical juncture and the abruptness of the initial shock to the Nasdaq on Thursday could suggest prices are growing increasingly fragile. Should markets be offered further negativity in the form of economic data, coronavirus developments or a theme yet unknown, it could offer the final evidence required for bears to arrest control of price action and push prices lower still.

ISM Manufacturing and Services

That said, investor sentiment can be a fickle attribute of the market and the current bull run has displayed its ability to almost entirely ignore traditionally bearish developments at times. With that in mind, I think the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are vulnerable to further weakness but if bulls look to drive the indices higher early next week, it may be best to wait out on the sidelines as “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” I discussed this theme at length in last week’s stock market webinar.

Starts in:
Live now:
Mar 10
( 16:03 GMT )
Recommended by Peter Hanks
Weekly Stock Market Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

DAX 30 Forecast

Outlook: Neutral

The DAX 30 also suffered last week after the German economy was revealed to be in a precarious position. Teetering on the brink of recession, Germany may have to explore fiscal policy change or further monetary easing from the ECB if it is to stave off further economic contraction.

DAX 30 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (November 2018 – February 2020)

DAX Price Chart

How to Trade Dax 30: Trading Strategies and Tips

While both possibilities have been explored, administrators have not yet locked in a decision and the DAX may suffer consequently. In the shorter term, a broader improvement in risk appetite would likely work to buoy the German equity index but it will have to weather a string of high-impact economic data due next week. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX for updates and insights.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Peter Hanks
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Nikkei 225 Forecast

Outlook: Bearish

The outlook is similarly grim for the Nikkei 225 after the Japanese economy suffered a precipitous decline in economic growth following a sales tax increase. At the threshold of experimental monetary policy, the Bank of Japan has few options to stoke growth as its economy grapples with an aging population.

Japanese GDP

Faced with the unknown consequences of the coronavirus, the Nikkei 225 does not appear to have the fundamental backdrop to evidence price gains. Therefore, the index may gyrate between technical levels in accordance with risk trends elsewhere.

Nikkei 225 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (September 2018 – February 2020)

Nikkei 225

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES