We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FactSet: Since March 31, $SPX forward 12M EPS has declined by 14.2% while $SPX price has increased by 17.2%. https://t.co/eQTjXfg2dc ht…
  • USD/CAD holds near the monthly low (1.3728) after snapping the range bound price action carried over from April, but Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may undermine the recent decline. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/47Pjp03afU https://t.co/s4O86pwu2O
  • Market snapshot: #AUD surging with #NZD at the expense of #USD and #JPY. #HKD also down amid political uncertainty while US equity futures trade in the green with APAC stocks
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.71% Gold: 0.58% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XnIMS4xarU
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.79% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.52% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.46% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3TmObf8qMo
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.39%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wjEN7NrhgH
  • #USDKRW down with the pair trading just within the range of the uptrend. Do you think it will break this week? https://t.co/FvyNYJy701
  • Forex Update: $USD continues to weaken against its major counterparts, led by $AUD (+0.86%), while $JPY lags behind (+0.11%). https://t.co/5wayEueKCi
  • GBP/USD: cluster of recent lows around the 1.2160 level and the Tuesday’s low print at 1.2190 may act as the first level of support for the pair. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/yvGzi5hoQw https://t.co/9qFx1oKZsE
  • Market snapshot: - US equity futures pointing lower while #AUD and #NZD are trading higher vs USD and JPY
Crude Oil Torn Between Iran Election, Coronavirus and G20 Summit

Crude Oil Torn Between Iran Election, Coronavirus and G20 Summit

2020-02-22 07:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • Crude oil prices may rise on Iran election if hardliners fill parliament, stokes political tensions
  • G20 summit may bruise crude oil prices if officials send chilling message about growth outlook
  • Coronavirus outbreak could trim gains in crude if analysts forecast a global slowdown from it

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK BULLISH ON IRAN ELECTION

Crude oil prices will be closely watching the outcome of Iran’s parliamentary election as tensions between Washington and Tehran grow from sanctions and proxy attacks the US has accused Iran of orchestrating. Many see the upcoming vote as a referendum on the current administration whose voter base has grown frustrated with President Hassan Rouhani in the face of crippling sanctions and global isolation.

The disillusioned moderate voters – who constitute the bulk of the current administration’s support base – have expressed frustration with the economic circumstances and are calling for a nation-wide boycott of the election. Consequently, this increases the probability that the majority of the Parliament’s 290 seats will be filled with conservative hardliners.

Their ideological predilections more closely mirror that of the Guardian Council, Iran’s constitutionally-mandated 12-member legislative body. Their policy towards the US is comparatively more antagonistic than that of Mr. Rouhani’s, and as such, could raise the possibility of reignited stress. Consequently, the prospect of a supply disruption through escalated tensions could push crude oil prices higher.

Crude Oil Prices – Daily Chart

Crude Oil Chart

Crude Oil chart created using TradingView

CORONAVIRUS CONCERNS MAY TRIM CRUDE OIL GAINS

Financial markets continue to be held hostage by fear over the spread and impact of the coronavirus on global growth and how it may influence China’s economic dynamics. There are premonitions that a slowdown in Asia’s powerhouse could ripple out across the region and further disrupt supply chains and derail the recovery in global growth that was just beginning to show signs of stabilization.

JPMorgan global trade PMI

As the second largest consumer of crude oil, weaker demand out of China could further pressure crude oil which are still licking its wounds from the wounds after a politically turbulent two years. The spread of the coronavirus and rising death toll may begin to seep into key economic data – like PMIs – and infect sentiment of producers who may start thinking the outlook is not as bright as they had suspected.

Crude Oil and coronavirus

GLOBAL GROWTH UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON BRENT

“Uncertainty is becoming the new normal” IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a conference last week, warning that the coronavirus is “a stark reminder of how a fragile recovery could be threatened by unforeseen events”. In this environment, growth-oriented commodities like crude oil will be under pressure as demand for a vital input wilts alongside expectations for robust economic growth.

Global economic policy uncertainty index

G20 SUMMIT MAY CAST GLOOMY SHADOW ON GROWTH

G20 Finance Ministers and central bank governors will be meeting in Saudi Arabia from February 22-23 where the main topic of discussion will be the cost and impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. Downbeat commentary there from officials whose views carry a high premium in market opinion could dampen sentiment and further pressure crude oil prices.

CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.