News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • With the FOMC decision dead ahead, the $SKEW 'tail risk' indicator has pushed to the highest reading on record (back to 1989). Overtook the previous Aug 2018 peak. Here it is overlaid on $SPX https://t.co/s0SNSwqdw8
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/57LSd00yy2
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/uVtgTCeFQk
  • US API Stock Changes: #Crude -8.537M #Cushing -1.526M #Gasoline +2.852M #Distillate +1.956M #OOTT #WTI $CL_F
  • Poll: How far do you think the Fed will go as far as signaling a shift away from its record accommodative monetary policy stance?
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.45% Gold: -0.38% Silver: -0.73% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/jE8IZfOEEw
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.97%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.75%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/c6Ej28vCYY
  • Chinese Holdings of US Treasury Securities (USD) Apr: $1.096T (prev $1.100T) Japanese Holdings of US Treasury Securities (USD) Apr: $1.277T (prev $1.240T)
  • June Consumer Sentiment bounces back and rises to 86.4 from 82.9, beating market expectations. Get your market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/0pWQAS10hW https://t.co/Vv52HG7E9K
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (APR) Actual: $101.2B Previous: $146.7B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
Top Trade Idea 2020: Global Recession? Take the Under: Long Crude Oil, Long CAD/JPY

Top Trade Idea 2020: Global Recession? Take the Under: Long Crude Oil, Long CAD/JPY

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

One of the most popular calls in the second half of 2019 was that the global economy, led by the US, was moving towards a recession. The culprit? None other than the US-China trade war. And for some time, there may have been good reason: one of the most reliable recession indicators, the US Treasury yield curve inversion, was flashing red.

Yet as the calendar turns to 2020, all those recession calls seem overblown. The US economy looks like it will close 2019 with an annualized growth rate around 2%. Global PMIs started to rebound by the end of the year, as did industrial production and manufacturing data from G10 economies. Major central banks are loosening or shifting to neutral thanks to tight labor markets, yet tame inflation will keep back any significant efforts to restrict monetary policy (see: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s December 2019 press conference).

For 2019, at least the first few months, it seems that the ‘reflation’ trade may be back on: that is, ‘long growth.’ Crude oil is the commodity market proxy for growth, while CAD/JPY rates serve as an FX proxy to crude oil.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (October 2018 to December 2019) (Chart 1)

Crude Oil Price Chart

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES