We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Breaking news

Australian Employment Change Rose: 13.5k, Est: 10.0k with Participation Rate: 66.1%, Est: 66.0%

Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 46.2k Expected: N/A Previous: -1.8k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 13.5k Expected: 10.0k Previous: 28.7k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 46.2k Expected: N/A Previous: -0.3k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 13.5k Expected: 10.0k Previous: 28.9k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN), Actual: 5.3% Expected: 5.2% Previous: 5.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 46.2K Expected: 10.0k Previous: 28.9k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN), Actual: 46.2K Expected: N/A Previous: -0.3k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • Australian Dollar falls after local jobs data for January was released: Employment Change Actual: 13.5k Est: 10.0k Prior: 28.9k Unemployment Rate Actual: 5.3% Est: 5.2% Prior: 5.1% Participation Rate Actual: 66.1% Est: 66% Prior: 66.% https://t.co/FgWIytdcXK
  • A brief $AUD recovery may have run out of steam, with the currency poised to break range support and test below 0.66 against its US counterpart.Get your AUD technical analysis from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/pTEaGLiyIG https://t.co/sknBs5vPpM
  • Join Analyst @ddubrovskyFX for live coverage of the Australia Employment data here. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/475271731
Top Trade Idea 2020: Global Recession? Take the Under: Long Crude Oil, Long CAD/JPY

Top Trade Idea 2020: Global Recession? Take the Under: Long Crude Oil, Long CAD/JPY

2019-12-31 14:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

One of the most popular calls in the second half of 2019 was that the global economy, led by the US, was moving towards a recession. The culprit? None other than the US-China trade war. And for some time, there may have been good reason: one of the most reliable recession indicators, the US Treasury yield curve inversion, was flashing red.

Yet as the calendar turns to 2020, all those recession calls seem overblown. The US economy looks like it will close 2019 with an annualized growth rate around 2%. Global PMIs started to rebound by the end of the year, as did industrial production and manufacturing data from G10 economies. Major central banks are loosening or shifting to neutral thanks to tight labor markets, yet tame inflation will keep back any significant efforts to restrict monetary policy (see: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s December 2019 press conference).

For 2019, at least the first few months, it seems that the ‘reflation’ trade may be back on: that is, ‘long growth.’ Crude oil is the commodity market proxy for growth, while CAD/JPY rates serve as an FX proxy to crude oil.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (October 2018 to December 2019) (Chart 1)

Crude Oil Price Chart
Top Trading Opportunities in 2020
Top Trading Opportunities in 2020
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Download our Top Trading Opportunities for 2020
Get My Guide

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.