Trading Forecast: Dollar Rally Conflicts with Dow’s on Trade Wars, Watch Euro, Pound and Kiwi Ahead
There was an unmistakable extension of the maligned risk appetite trend through this past week. The US-China trade war headlines will likely carry the speculative focus moving forward; but European and Japanese GDP figures, US auto tariffs decision, Fed speak and RBNZ decision should all be monitored for volatility.
Heading into next week AUD is set up to come under pressure as charts favor a potential resumption of the longer-term downtrends.
Crude oil has notched an impressive rebound off its October swing low near the 51.00 mark to now trade above 57.00, but the commodity’s path of least resistance points to potential for lower prices.
Mr. Mark Carney has now presided over his final Super Thursday atop the Bank of England, and a familiar bearish response showed in GBP.
The Dollar has mounted an impressive recovery rally this past week, maintaining a long-running channel. Yet, as a range move, what is the level of momentum we should expect for strong reversal or follow through ahead?
The Australian Dollar could remain quite well supported this week if current optimism around an interim US-China trade accord doesn’t dissipate.
The price of oil pulls back from the weekly high ($57.88) despite signs of a looming US-China trade deal, with the outlook for crude mired by signs of growing supply.
It has not been a good week for gold bulls with the price of the precious metal down around $50/oz. over the week as risk assets benefit from a strong market bid.
The Dow Jones continues to trade in record territory, despite conflicting trade war headlines. Meanwhile, the DAX 30 could extend higher once the auto tariff threat passes.
The Euro is likely to take direction from progress on a US-China trade deal and evolving Fed policy bets in the week ahead, looking past local developments.
The US Dollar may rise in the week ahead if US CPI and retail sales data cool the need for Fed rate cuts against the backdrop of improving US-China trade talks.
Gold (XAUUSD) = Yellow
Oil (Crude Oil Futures) = Black
USD (DXY) = Green
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.