We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @adampayne26: I’m told the new YouGov MRP coming out shortly makes slightly less happy reading for the Conservatives
  • “Without having to worry about rebukes from the WTO, countries could use tariffs and other sanctions to limit imports. Such rising protectionism could create uncertainty and discourage trade.” https://t.co/AnsiUhjlim
  • RT @EdwardLawrence: Senate Majority Leader saying the Senate will not take up USMCA until after an impeachment trial. #USMCA #Trade
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.652% 3-Year: 1.660% 5-Year: 1.684% 7-Year: 1.778% 10-Year: 1.836% 30-Year: 2.260% $TNX
  • video of today's webinar archived and ready to go -> https://t.co/6AN5JgFJBD
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.39% Gold: 0.23% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/iAnM8l2y2N
  • $USD: US Dollar Outlook Hinges on FOMC Guidance, Fed Balance Sheet Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2019/12/10/us-dollar-outlook-hinges-on-fomc-guidance-fed-balance-sheet.html -via @DailyFX https://t.co/1kDzd3IcPY
  • $CAD $MXN https://t.co/JtihyAuAhY
  • Senator Mcconnell says the Senate will not finish the USMCA before 2020 $SPX $DXY $CAD $MXN -BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.16%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PYu9xhQXLN
Oil Prices to Stay Afloat for as OPEC Emphasizes December Meeting

Oil Prices to Stay Afloat for as OPEC Emphasizes December Meeting

2019-10-12 10:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Crude Oil 2-Hour Chart

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

  • Recent developments coming out of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may fuel the recent rebound in the price of crude oil as group emphasizes its pledge to balance the energy market.

Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Neutral

The price of oil holds the monthly opening range, with crude marking a failed attempt to test the October-low ($50.99) as OPEC appears to be on track to curb production beyond 2019.

In fact, OPEC and its allies may take additional steps to avert lower energy prices at the next meeting starting on December 5 as Secretary GeneralMohammad Sanusi Barkindoencourages the participating nations in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ to put “all options on the table.”

The comments suggest OPEC+ will implement additional cuts to production to keep oil prices afloat, but it remains to be seen if the group will make a major announcement ahead of 2020 as Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak expects oil prices to float “around $50” in the medium-term.

World Oil Demand Chart 2019 2020

Nevertheless, the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) continues to warn of lower consumption in 2019, with the forecast “revised lower by 0.04 mb/d to 0.98 mb/d, with total oil demand standing at 99.80 mb/d.

The weakening outlook for global consumption may push OPEC and its allies to take a more aggressive approach in balancing the energy market especially as US crude output hits a fresh record high in October.

Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil Chart

Fresh updates from the US Energy Information Administration show weekly field production climbing to 12,600K from 12,400K in the week ending September 27, with oil prices facing a greater risk of a bear market ahead of the next OPEC meeting amid the ongoing pickup in US output.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Oil Daily Chart

Source: Trading View

The broader outlook for crude oil remains tilted to the downside as a ‘death-cross’ formation took shape in July, with recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offering a bearish signal as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from June.

However, the flattening slopes in the 50-Day ($55.37) and 200-Day SMA ($56.76) warn of range-bound conditions as the moving averages converge with one another, with decline from the September-high ($63.38) failing to produce a test the 2019-low ($50.52).

In turn, the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around $51.40 (50% retracement) to $51.80 (50% expansion) may generate range-bound conditions, with the $54.90 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% expansion) region on the radar as it lines up with the October-high ($54.84).

A break of the monthly opening may spur a run at $57.40 (61.8% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.