Trading Forecast: EURUSD and Dow Bearings Rest on Jackson Hole, Trump
Scheduled event risk is starting to give way to sentiment and systemic fundamental concerns – a prospect that threatens volatility at a time of year when quiet is supposed to prevail. Trade wars are finding guidance from headlines that President Trump regularly tops, while recession fears are tied more closely to market measures. The Jackson Hole Symposium will present an opportunity for officials to discuss all of this.
The Australian Dollar remains close to notable lows against its US counterpart and the market is still betting on aggressive rate cuts from the RBA
Crude oil prices continue to drop as the economic data keep huge question marks glowering over likely demand levels.
The US Dollar may rise if the Fed meeting minutes and commentary at the Jackson Hole symposium spooks markets and boost demand for liquidity.
Next week’s UK data vacuum will be filled by the latest political shenanigans with rumor and counter-rumor focusing on who is up to what, with who and why.
The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening.
The Euro may fall as dovish ECB meeting minutes and soft PMI data set the stage for easing in September while Italy flirts with early elections.
Black = Oil (CL Futures)
Yellow = Gold (XAUUSD)
Green = USD (DXY Index)
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