Weekly Trading Forecast: Heavy Seas Between Fed Decision, EZ GDP and Trade Wars
This past week was spiked with a few key events like the US 1Q GDP release and an active theme in US earnings. In the week ahead, that docket grows crowded; and earnings will fade as other more consistent themes like monetary policy, lingering recession fears and trade wars move to the foreground.
The Australian Dollar could see some of the clear current pressure on it relieved by the Fed, but there remains clear scope for data disappointment and more weakness seems likely
After crude oil prices fell by the most in two months this past week, the commodity may find itself at risk if the Fed doesn’t hint at cutting soon. US data may put OPEC supply fundamentals on the sidelines.
The US Dollar may continue higher as a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve despite recently rosy data spooks financial markets and inspires haven demand.
A deluge of high importance data releases and two major central bank interest rate decisions may buffet gold all next week, with the latest US non-farm payrolls to bring the week to a close, just for good measure. Add in low liquidity in Asia and traders will need to be on their toes for sharp bouts of risk and volatility.
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