Weekly Trading Forecast: Will Risk Trends Carry Dow to Record and Restore Yen Crosses?
The warnings of a slower economy and greater fundamental risks to the financial system relayed to the market by the IMF and major central banks this past week seem to have been firmly overlooked. Are the favorable trends in risk appetite robust enough to restore a genuine phase of risk appetite or is this simply another bout of temporary respite from reality?
The price of crude oil is up a whopping 38 percent year-to-date as fading fears over slowing global growth and OPEC supply cuts boosted the commodity higher. Although, recent gains could be jeopardized if sentiment sours again
GBP/USD may continue to defend the bull-trend from late-2018 should fresh data prints coming out of the UK put pressure on the BoE to further normalize monetary policy.
The US Dollar will be looking to first-quarter corporate earnings reports and a slew of macroeconomic data releases to shape global growth bets amid fears of slowdown.
Gold prices took a hit at the end of the week as global equity markets surged to the topside – in spite of a weaker US Dollar. Now that the US-China trade war talks may be nearing resolution and Brexit has been punted to October, Gold’s appeal as a safe haven has been diminished.
Markets are likely to stay quite next week as Easter nears, but data releases through the week may well decide if EURUSD can retain the 1.1300 level in the short-term.
The S&P 500 hovers around 2900 with record highs in sight, while DAX dismisses early stages of a potential EU/US trade wars.
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