Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars, Chinese GDP and Rate Decision Bridge Themes and Event Risk
Risk appetite continues to gain a foothold across the market spectrum, but where is this enthusiasm coming from? In the week ahead, traders should expect headlines touching upon concerns over economic activity (particularly China), monetary policy (ECB and BOJ), international trade and political stability. Few of these themes favor bulls.
Fresh data prints coming out the Asia/Pacific region may drag on AUD/USD as China is expected to grow at the slowest pace since the Global Financial Crisis.
A deterioration in inflation expectations over the past several months will keep the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy intact for the foreseeable future; it’s possible that President Mario Draghi pushes back the timeline for a “summer 2019” rate hike at the meeting on Thursday.
Sterling rallied after PM May’s contentious Brexit bill was shot down in flames in the House of Commons and that leaves a No Deal Brexit increasingly unlikely.
The US Dollar may continue to find support in haven-seeking capital flows as key data from China, the EU and the IMF darken the outlook on global growth.
Gold price action faltered last week due to returning optimism in the markets, but is the reversal in trader sentiment here to stay?
The US stock market will look to trade war developments and earnings season while other global equity markets will keep an eye on Chinese GDP figures.
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