Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars, Chinese GDP and Rate Decision Bridge Themes and Event Risk
Risk appetite continues to gain a foothold across the market spectrum, but where is this enthusiasm coming from? In the week ahead, traders should expect headlines touching upon concerns over economic activity (particularly China), monetary policy (ECB and BOJ), international trade and political stability. Few of these themes favor bulls.
Australian Dollar Forecast: Slowing China GDP to Curb AUD/USD Flash-Crash Rebound
Fresh data prints coming out the Asia/Pacific region may drag on AUD/USD as China is expected to grow at the slowest pace since the Global Financial Crisis.
Euro Forecast: Dour Mood Expected at ECB Meeting; PMIs on Wednesday
A deterioration in inflation expectations over the past several months will keep the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy intact for the foreseeable future; it’s possible that President Mario Draghi pushes back the timeline for a “summer 2019” rate hike at the meeting on Thursday.
Oil Forecast Can Crude Oil Prices Keep Rising as China Slows? Brexit, ECB Eyed
Crude oil price gains slowed despite OPEC output cuts. The commodity is at risk to slowing Chinese GDP. With US in shutdown, oil eyes Brexit news and ECB for sentiment-linked moves.
British Pound Forecast: Bulls Taking Control of Sterling
Sterling rallied after PM May’s contentious Brexit bill was shot down in flames in the House of Commons and that leaves a No Deal Brexit increasingly unlikely.
US Dollar Forecast:May Find Support as Global Outlook Worries Mount
The US Dollar may continue to find support in haven-seeking capital flows as key data from China, the EU and the IMF darken the outlook on global growth.
Gold Forecast: Will USD Gains and Returning Optimism Fade?
Gold price action faltered last week due to returning optimism in the markets, but is the reversal in trader sentiment here to stay?
Equities Forecast: Dow Holds on to Trade War Hopes and Earnings, Others to China GDP
The US stock market will look to trade war developments and earnings season while other global equity markets will keep an eye on Chinese GDP figures.
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