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Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Global Markets Focus on Trade Wars Headlines, US Elections and Rate Decisions

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Global Markets Focus on Trade Wars Headlines, US Elections and Rate Decisions

Tyler Yell, CMT, Peter Hanks, Daniel Dubrovsky, David Cottle, Christopher Vecchio, CFA, David Song, Ilya Spivak, Justin McQueen, Nick Cawley,


While equities and other risk assets attempted to stabilize from October’s speculative tumble, the FX world experienced a jolt of volatility this past week. With systemic themes like risks trends and trade wars already agitated, anticipation for the US mid-term elections and a run of rate decisions will keep traders tuned in and anxious.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ May Sink NZD Prices as 2018 US Midterms Offer it Uncertainty

The New Zealand Dollar may be at risk if the RBNZ leaves the door open to rate cuts again while the 2018 US midterms carry levels of uncertainty for stocks, sentiment and NZD prices.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Shows Some Rare Resilience, May Hold Up

There are still few fundamental reasons to like the Australian Dollar more than its US cousin. However the market is now very short and may decide the Aussie has suffered plenty.

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Sell Off Puts Former Best Asset Within Whisper of Bear Market

Less than a month ago, Crude oil was moving toward four-year highs that it hit on October 3. Now, WTI Crude is traversing at a six-month low toward a bear-market as the scary chart shared last week appears fateful.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting

Price action ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting raises the risk for a larger pullback in USD/CAD as the exchange rate carves a fresh series of lower highs & lows.

British Pound Forecast – Sterling's Rally May Have More Room, All Things Being Equal

A decent week for Sterling bulls with GBP pushing ahead across a wide range of currencies. UK Q3 GDP is released next week, but as always Brexit oversees market moves.

Euro Forecast - Quiet Calendar Means its Italy or Bust in Week Ahead

The quiet economic calendar – there are no ‘high’ rated German or Eurozone data releases – means that the only potential catalyst in the days ahead is progress around Italy's budget saga.

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Likely to Rise as the Midterm Elections Outcome Emerges

Midterm elections are set to overshadow a monetary policy announcement form the Federal Reserve. Their outcome seems likely to be supportive for the US Dollar.

Gold Forecast – Mid-Term Election May Provide Catalyst for Topside Breakout

Gold set for another volatile week as markets focus on Mid-Term election outcome, while recent gains in the Yuan keep prices at elevated levels.

Equities Forecast – S&P 500 Looks to Midterms and Trade Wars, DAX and FTSE Elsewhere

As a volatile October falls to history, November brings with it an opportunity for equity markets to regain their footing but achieving stability may prove easier said than done.

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.