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Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars and Emerging Market Pressures to Mix with Rate Decisions and Liquidity Next Week

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars and Emerging Market Pressures to Mix with Rate Decisions and Liquidity Next Week


The summer lull has come to a close, but no serious fundamental themes have been resolved during the volatility hiatus. Now, with an expected seasonal pick up in market participation; the markets will have to keep tabs on pressing themes like Trade wars while high profile event risk (such as NFPs) crosses the wires.

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Aims Higher on Haven Demand, Yield Appeal

The US Dollar is poised to continue higher, finding compelling narratives to drive demand in both risk on and off trading conditions.

Euro Forecast - New Month, Old Concerns for the Euro

Despite the calendar flipping to September, issues prevalent in August - like Brexit and Turkey - will continue to guide the EUR-crosses.

Japanese Yen Forecast - USD/JPY Initiates Bearish Sequence Amid Failed Run at August-High

USD/JPY may exhibit a more bearish behavior ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as it initiates a bearish sequence after failing to test the August-high (112.15)

British Pound Forecast – Sterling Dips Look Attractive After Brexit Breakthrough

The mid-week announcement that the EU is willing to offer the UK an unprecedented third-country deal sent Sterling racing higher as Brexit gloom began to clear.

Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Unlikely To Get Much Lift From Crowded Data Week

There is plenty of interesting Australian stuff going on this week, with an interest rate decision and official growth data crowning a full schedule.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD/USD Vulnerable to US Tariffs & Trade War Fears, BoC Hike Bets

New Zealand Dollar seems vulnerable to US tariffs on China as trade war fears rise, sending the S&P 500 lower. Also, the BoC preparing markets for a hike bodes ill for NZD/USD prices.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Short Term CAD Outlook Dependent on NAFTA Outcome

Key risk events keep implied volatility for the CAD at lofty levels with markets placing close attention to the outcome of NAFTA talks. Elsewhere, the BoC will likely emphasis gradual tightening at rate decision.

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Market Focuses On Supply Risk, Not Trump Threats As Oil Sees Monthly Gain

Donald Trump will continue to bring tariff headlines that likely will bring short-term downward shocks to the oil market, but overall support looks to be firm for crude oil in coming months.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Primed for Seasonal Strength, NFPs on Tap

September season tendencies favor Gold strength and we’re looking to validate the August low. These are the targets & invalidation levels into the monthly open.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Under Pressure on Resumed Trade War, Eyes on PBOC for Key Level

The resumed trade war is expected to add pressure on the Yuan; yet, whether the USD/CNH can break above 6.90 will still need a say from China’s Central Bank.

Equities Forecast – Equity Forecast for Dow, S&P 500, DAX, FTSE and Nikkei

Global equities continue to diverge as European markets took a dip this week after US stocks set fresh highs. Meanwhile, a big setup is brewing in the Nikkei as we move towards the final four months of 2018.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars and Emerging Market Pressures to Mix with Rate Decisions and Liquidity Next Week

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.