Weekly Trading Forecast: US and China Raise the Trade War Stakes to Compete with Apple, Brexit and Rate Decisions
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The US Dollar may turn back after four consecutive weeks on the upside as the rally runs out of fresh catalysts to inspire continued near-term progress.
The coming week features zero ‘high’ rated events on the economic calendar, meaning if the Euro stops its recent skid, it won’t be due to traders reacting to new data.
With the expected 0.25% UK rate hike now in the rear mirror, Sterling traders will be at the whim of Brexit headlines and noise and next week’s GDP release as we enter the holiday period.
The Australian Dollar may remain range bound on a status quo RBA, relatively dovish RBNZ, US CPI data and the persistent risk of trade wars for equities and the sentiment-linked currency.
The Fed interest rate decision on August 1 may influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as the central bank appears to be on track to implement higher borrowing-costs.
Sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar has been somewhat positive with NAFTA concerns easing, while next week’s key risk event will come in the form of the GDP report for May.
China's central bank has stepped in to support the yuan and may continue to calm it. China's trade figures will reveal damages of US-China trade war.
Next week won’t be as busy on the economic calendar front, but markets could still be on the move with risk trends.
Crude Oil prices continued to hold the down-trend this week, but a key level of support came into play yet again to help stem the declines. A rise in geopolitical tensions may soon offset the expected increases in supply.
Gold prices saw fresh yearly lows this week but rebounded off key support late in the session. These are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter next week.
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.
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