Weekly Trading Forecast: Can Markets Hold Steady Through US GDP with Trade Wars Exploding?
The US Dollar may return to the offensive as President Trump dials down trade war rhetoric while second-quarter GDP data puts US growth at a four-year high.
The bar was already fairly low for the July European Central Bank meeting, but with trade tensions running high and inflation expectations meandering, traders should lower expectations even more for any change in policy.
The UK Parliament begins a six-week holiday mid-next week with rumors of a leadership challenge still doing the rounds. A lack of UK data next week will also leave Sterling vulnerable to any Brexit update.
The Australian Dollar braces for local inflation data, US GDP, an ECB rate decision and the threat of trade wars. Combining the risks creates for a rather bearish fundamental forecast.
Fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may curb the recent selloff in USD/JPY as the growth rate is expected to expand 4.2% in the second-quarter of 2018.
Calendar spreads in the oil market have softened lately with Brent showing the first front-month discount since September that hurts the broader bullish argument.
China’s top policymaker seems to have shifted tone on the Yuan to more weakness; at the same time, Chinese equities could still be vulnerable as the US threatened to impose additional tariffs.
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