Weekly Forecast: Carry and Euro Rise to Start the Year as Dollar Struggles
The first week of 2018 has come to a close a strong tentative trend has taken in the opening move of the year: risk trends have soared through equities and even reached to frequently lagging carry trade. Have risk trends set the definitive theme and direction for the year with this opening move or will new forces arise to take over?
NFPs underwhelmed an increasingly anesthetized Dollar crowd, but would the currency even responded more definitively to a more dramatic surprise? The Greenback’s bullish options seem to be thinning out.
The Euro has started the year with net-long positions in the futures market at an all-time high.
Sterling’s recent rally is likely to continue against both the US dollar and the euro as the UK’s economic backdrop starts to improve, while Brexit headwinds recede for now.
The Australian Dollar has joined in fully in the greenback-bashing which has characterized the change from old year to new. However some pause for consideration is now in order.
Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan May Extend Gains on New Policies, China-France Summit Adds Uncertainties
Chinese regulators’ newly-introduced policies may support the Yuan; Xi-Macron meetings are likely to both touch on controversial issues and reach deals.
Crude Oil has closed to the highest level in three years as global demand picture is looking bright, but doubters are pointing to swelling US refined product inventories.
Equities Forecast: Global Stock Markets Start Year Strong; Follow-through in Week 2?
This past week global markets got off to a strong start, and will look to try and build on this momentum in week 2; a little digestion of recent gains would be a healthy development.
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