Weekly Trading Forecast: Politics Menace Markets Yet Again
Markets might've focused on Fed policy as FOMC meeting minutes and US CPI data hit the wires but testy NAFTA talks, a shaky Iran nuclear deal and chaotic Brexit fears haunt investors.
The US Dollar aims to build on recent gains as rising inflation feeds Fed rate hike speculation but politics threaten to spoil the markets’ mood once more.
For the second week in a row, a quiet economic calendar leaves the Euro without significant drivers. Generally, the focus remains on the run-up to the October 26 European Central Bank policy meeting.
The British Pound looks set to slide further in the days ahead on political concerns, the Brexit impasse and weak data. However, it’s also due for a correction, which could come at any time.
USD/JPY appears to be on course to test the July-high (114.50) as it clears the monthly opening range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
The Australian Dollar had a tough week last week and, while the coming one may be kinder, there’s little reason to suspect any change in the current AUD/USD downtrend.
Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Losses Likely to Ease ahead of Top Party Congress
With market focus turning to China’s 19th Party Congress to be held in less than two weeks, Yuan’s losses against the Dollar may soon find relief.
Equities Forecast: S&P 500, FOMC Minutes Up Next; DAX, FTSE 100 Could Stall
In the week ahead, we have FOMC minutes in the U.S. on Wednesday; calendar light in Germany and the UK, indices to be impacted by their respective currencies and general risk-trends.
Gold is down for the fourth consecutive week with an NFP inspired rally offering a reprieve on Friday. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.
Oil prices fell back below the vaulted psychological level of $50 as worries about Tropical Storm Nate began to get priced-in. Meanwhile, a key long-term trend-line continues to help shape resistance in WTI.
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