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Weekly Trading Forecast: December Expectations Face Themes Like Brexit, Data Like NFPs

Weekly Trading Forecast: December Expectations Face Themes Like Brexit, Data Like NFPs

December is historically one of the more quiet trading periods of the year. However, an antsy market heading towards protectionism makes a docket loaded with events like US NFPs, an OPEC meeting and BoE stability report a trading minefield.

US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Looking to Close Out Best Two-Month Rally in Two Years

Though the ICE Dollar Index (DXY) closed out this past week at its highest level in over 13 years, the currency’s primary effective driver – rising Fed rate forecasts – is quickly burning off its fuel. Can the expectation of 2017 rate hikes pick up the responsibility for further Dollar gains?

Euro Forecast - Risks Increasing for Euro Ahead of Italian Constitutional Referendum

With economic populism sweeping the Western world, the Euro finds itself sandwiched between the French Republican primaries and the Italian constitutional referendum. Meanwhile, the US Presidential election results are surprisingly coming into question, raising the specter of a rocky transition of power.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound May Weaken on Profit-Taking, Year-End Flows

The British Pound may weaken amid a lull in top-tier news flow amid profit-taking following six weeks of consecutive gains and year-end portfolio readjustment.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Dropping at its Fastest Pace in Two Decades But What Motivation are Bears Tapping?

Dollar strength strong-arming the Yen and its counterparts does have some merit, but such tail wind is limited. Risk appetite is similarly dubious as only US equities seem to enjoy the drunk optimism that would be extracted from the USD/JPY’s rate of climb. The true source of this move may be something as detrimental as capital flight.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at Risk on US Data, Trump Cabinet Appointments

The Australian Dollar may face renewed selling pressure as US data boosts Fed tightening expectations and Trump cabinet appointments continue to pour in.

Gold Forecast - Gold Breakdown Comes as US Treasury Yields, Real Rates Rise

The sharp rise in US yields since the US Presidential election have been the driving factor behind weakness in Gold. With US real yields running higher (US Treasury yields minus headline inflation), Gold’s appeal is understandably limited at present time.

Weekly Trading Forecast: December Expectations Face Themes Like Brexit, Data Like NFPs

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See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.