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  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.21% Wall Street: -0.35% FTSE 100: -0.94% France 40: -1.21% Germany 30: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • Markets have digested the realization that the rollout of the vaccine campaign does mean an immediate solution to the current economic and social problems. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • The $DXY continues to hold above the psychological level of 90 and is testing around 90.30 this morning. $USD
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Germany 30 for the first time since Dec 11, 2020 when Germany 30 traded near 13,135.60. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness.
  • ECB's Lane: - If favorable financing conditions can be maintained, maximum amount of asset purchases may not be necessary - Recent intensification of pandemic represents a significant downside risk, requires continuation of various fiscal support measures #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Elderson: - Impact of the crisis on the European banking sector has yet to be fully revealed - Consequences of Brexit still need to be dealt with - It is "high time" to complete the EU banking union through institutional/regulatory architecture, deposit insurance #ECB $EUR
  • Italy's coalition Democratic Party (PD) wants Conte to resign and guarantees support for him as head of new government - PD Lawmakers $EUR
  • $NZDUSD is back above 0.7200 this morning, trading near one of January's key levels for the pair. $NZD $USD
  • UK PM Johnson to visit Scotland to make impassioned plea for Scotland to reject narrow separatism - The Sun $GBP
  • 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (DEC) Actual: 0.52 Previous: 0.27
Weekly Trading Forecast: Does a Seasonal Liquidity Drain Benefit or Threaten the Markets?

Weekly Trading Forecast: Does a Seasonal Liquidity Drain Benefit or Threaten the Markets?

The US Thanksgiving holiday week offers a historical drain on liquidity and boost in speculative reach. However, against the backdrop of rate speculation, protectionism and uneven risk trends; shallow markets may impose more risk than relief.

US Dollar Forecast – Quiet Will Not Serve Well a Dollar Already Stretched at 13-Year Highs

The Dollar’s performance these past weeks is undeniably extraordinary. Through this past Friday’s close, the ICE’s Dollar Index (DXY) notched 10 consecutive days of climb – the longest bull run since June 2013 – to reach highs not seen in over 13 years.

Euro Forecast – Rising Euro-Zone, US Political Risks Driving EUR/USD in Short-term

In the event that political risks in the Euro-Zone continue to build up, there is ample room for market participants to drive down the single currency in the short-term. Among futures traders, non-commercials are only holding 119.2K net-short short contracts through the week ended November 15, 2016. Relative to the all-time extreme set at the end of March 2015, when there were 226.6K net-short contracts held, bearishness towards the Euro isn’t that significant at present time.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen Braces for Volatility as Trump Stirs the Pot

The Japanese Yen plummeted for the second-consecutive week as the US Dollar surged to 13-year highs, and a continuation of the so-called US President Elect ‘Trump Rally’ could push it to further lows. A holiday-shortened week for North American markets will shift focus to Japan.

British Pound Forecast – GBP Flash Crash Rebound Fizzles- UK Budget to Offer Limited Relief

Recent price action casts a bearish outlook for GBP/USD as the recovery from the 2016-low (1.1905) appears to be losing momentum, and the British Pound may continue to give back the rebound following the October ‘flash crash’ should the Autumn Budget Statement highlight a weakened outlook for the U.K. economy.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Mired in Fallout from US Presidential Election

The Australian Dollar accelerated downward as expected as financial markets continued to reckon with the implications of an on-coming economic policy pivot following the US presidential election. Traders are betting that grandiose fiscal stimulus championed by President-elect Trump will prove inflationary, pushing the Fed along a steeper rate hike path.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Domestic Data Helps Shield New Zealand Dollar Against Crosses

The New Zealand Dollar has performed in Binary fashion in the FX market. If you simply looked at the NZD/USD spot price, you would think the New Zealand economy was underperforming.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – CAD Stays Weak as Stimulus Anticipation Builds

The Bank of Canada moving back into a dovish posture has been expected for a while now. As we came into 2016, the Canadian Dollar was mired in a continued descent; and when paired-up with what was an extremely strong U.S. Dollar on the back of hopes/thoughts/fears of a full four interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2016, this created a real quagmire of a situation for Canadian importers.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan May Retrace in Near Term on Domestic Pressures

Both the onshore and offshore Yuan extended losses against the U.S. Dollar for the second consecutive week amid the Dollar strength: theUSD/CNHset record highs (record lows for the offshore Yuan) on a daily basis over the past five days

Gold Forecast –Gold Prices into Support as Trum Rally Ignites the Dollar

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.5% to trade at 1209 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come on the back of a massive sell-off last week that took prices to a seven month low.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Does a Seasonal Liquidity Drain Benefit or Threaten the Markets?

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