News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇
As Global Risks Increase, Markets May See that Kiwis Can Fly

As Global Risks Increase, Markets May See that Kiwis Can Fly

2017-01-29 22:00:00
Oliver Morrison, Analyst
As Global Risks Increase, Markets May See that Kiwis Can Fly

Fundamental Forecast for NZD: Bullish

- Rising inflation pressures helping guide the Kiwi higher.

- Incoming economic data is important, but will be in the background given the intense newsflow out of the United States.

- Populist pressures are starting to rise in New Zealand...

The New Zealand Dollar was boosted last week on Wednesday after New Zealand Q4'16 CPI inflation came in stronger than forecast, boosting market expectations of an early rise in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter and by 1.3% from a year earlier taking inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target for the first time in two years. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise 0.3% in the last three months of the year and by 1.2% over the year. Much of the rise was owing to pronounced base effects, stemming from the sharp falls in petrol prices. Importantly, there was clear sign of an upward trend in core inflation, which rose to a three-year high of 1.6%.

The data were therefore strong enough for many analysts to drop their forecasts that that the RBNZ will cut interest rates again this year (the RBNZ cut its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% at its meeting on November 10) and boost market expectations of an early rise in interest rates. Markets don’t expect the Bank to hike rates at its next meeting on February 9, but are pricing in at least one over the next 12 months.

In terms of upcoming data, December’s New Zealand overseas trade data (released Monday) and the fourth-quarter labour market figures (out Wednesday) are likely provide more evidence that the effect on activity of November’s earthquake was fairly limited.

Meanwhile, some are also worried about the rise of ‘Trump-ism’ in New Zealand, where there is an election this year. Opposition leader Winston Peters from the New Zealand First is nationalist populist in the Trump mould who has played the anti-immigration card in the past. And the controversial American billionaire, Trump donor and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who calls New Zealand a “utopia” has taken New Zealand citizenship and acquired a lakefront estate in Wanaka. The revelation comes as the New Yorker magazine reports New Zealand has become the destination of choice for rich Americans seeking a sanctuary in case of natural or political disaster.

This begs a curious question - could the Kiwi become the next safe-haven currency du jour? After all, New Zealand recently overtook Singapore as the best place to do business, according to the World Bank. It’s the world’s least corrupt country, according to Transparency International, and the fourth safest behind Iceland, Denmark and Austria, according to the 2016 Global Peace Index.

The correction of the 'Trump trade' since the election is also good news for the Kiwi. As the US’s third-largest export market there were fears for the county’s export returns if the US took a more closed approach to trade. After pulling the US out of the TTP, Trump has since signalled that New Zealand could be offered a bilateral free trade deal with the US.

--- Written by Oliver Morrison, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.