News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Libya's Haftar says the army has decided to resume output of oil #OOTT
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.24%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KhSpML2e1A
  • 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.25% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.51% Silver: 0.47% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/neu57eYQAY
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/H9AOMIjOnG
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision due at 10:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-18
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/0sMIVrdslY
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.10% Germany 30: -0.03% Wall Street: -0.09% FTSE 100: -0.27% France 40: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PmpWrAsueT
  • EU Bank regulators are moving closer to end ban of dividends next year
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/gaUllv1kra
New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Adverse RBNZ vs Fed Outlook Shift

New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Adverse RBNZ vs Fed Outlook Shift

2015-03-07 02:47:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Adverse RBNZ vs Fed Outlook Shift

Fundamental Forecast for the New Zealand Dollar: Neutral

  • New Zealand Dollar May Suffer Deeper Losses on Dovish RBNZ Rhetoric
  • Firming Fed Interest Rate Hike Outlook May Boost Kiwi Selling Pressure
  • Identify Key Turning Points for the New Zealand Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The New Zealand Dollar snapped four consecutive weeks of gains, losing nearly 3 percent against its US counterpart. Selling pressure may continue to swell in the week ahead as a dovish RBNZ monetary policy announcement fuels rate cut speculation even as bets on near-term Fed tightening grow more confident.

The currencywas noticeably stung by January’s about-face in RBNZ rhetoric. The central bank backed away from the hawkish posture on display in December, saying it expected to keep borrowing costs on hold “for some time” and conspicuously noting that future adjustments can take rates “either up or down”.

That seemedto create an opening for the possibility of easing where one was not previously apparent. The Kiwi responded, punctuating two weeks of pre-positioning for a dovish shift with a drop to the lowest level in four years against the greenback. A cautious correction followed, seemingly fueled in equal parts by uncertainty on the US policy front amid disappointing data outcomes and a broader swell in risk appetite.

Sellers returned with a vengeance last week. The RBNZ signaled it is looking for ways to isolate problem areas in the housing market, suggesting it will opt for a surgical approach to cool activity over the blunt instrument of rate hikes. Meanwhile, a strong US payrolls reading fueled a palpable hawkish shift in traders’ Fed rate hike outlook. The report likewise fueled risk aversion, suggesting the prospect of stimulus withdrawal has emerged as a source of worry once again.

The markets don’t expect an outright policy change from the RBNZ. Indeed, priced-in expectations place the probability of a rate cut at a mere 4 percent. Economic news-flow has soured since January’s sit-down however, leaving room for Governor Wheeler to rhetorically build the foundation for a possible downward shift in borrowing costs at subsequent meetings. If that cements probabilities of a cut some time over the next 12 months in the minds of investors, the Kiwi is likely to suffer.

On the US data front, excitations point to a rebound in retail sales and a pickup in consumer confidence (as tracked by a University of Michigan survey). Such outcomes may further bolster Fed tightening bets, weighing on sentiment and amplifying perceptions of the policy divergence between the US and the rest of the G10. Needless to say, that bodes ill for the Kiwi in its own right. It would hurt more so if it came against the backdrop of softening yield prospects at home.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES