News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Silver prices have struggled to set support over the past week, but today’s move is encouraging for Silver bulls and there may be scope for topside continuation. Get your $XAG market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/IXGwt7iWOY https://t.co/oGfeq9BhUx
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.91% Gold: 1.18% Oil - US Crude: 0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DguhEbR3xk
  • Mnuchin and Pelosi plan to continue talks on stimulus later today - BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.36%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 64.60%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1hXd5NIVwS
  • $SPX battling it out at resistance. same zone that was in-play mid-August, and was also the prior ath set in Feb $ES $SPY https://t.co/lgu4PPk1cK
  • 🇧🇷 Balance of Trade (SEP) Actual: $6.2B Expected: $7.1B Previous: $6.6B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-01
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.43% Germany 30: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/RJRCefPXqH
  • Check out the @DailyFX Trader Education Center for detailed insight on how to trade pennant chart patterns plus more found at the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/education/technical-analysis-chart-patterns/pennant-pattern.html/?ref-author=Dvorak
  • $AAL $UAL | Big moves potentially ahead by major US airliners, which could lead the way so to speak in terms of where the broader market heads next. These two companies hinge largely on stimulus talks. United and American Airlines coiled into pennant formations. #Stocks #Trading https://t.co/7lJXEokJ5o
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Balance of Trade (SEP) due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $7.1B Previous: $6.6B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-01
Forex Analysis: New Zealand Dollar To Maintain Range-Bound Price On RBNZ Policy

Forex Analysis: New Zealand Dollar To Maintain Range-Bound Price On RBNZ Policy

2012-11-10 03:25:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
New_Zealand_Dollar_To_Maintain_Range-Bound_Price_On_RBNZ_Policy_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: New Zealand Dollar To Maintain Range-Bound Price On RBNZ Policy

Fundamental Forecast for New Zealand Dollar: Neutral

The New Zealand dollar pared the rebound from 0.8100 as the economic calendar instilled a weakened outlook for the region, but we may see the high-yielding currency preserve the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) persistently strikes a neutral tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the NZDUSD quickly fell back from a fresh monthly high of 0.8307 as New Zealand’s jobless rate advanced to 7.3% - the highest since 1999 – and the ongoing weakness in the real economy may continue to drag on the exchange rate as it spurs bets for a rate cut.

However, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler argued that lowering the benchmark interest rate further would have a limited impact in triggering a ‘major depreciation in the exchange rate in the short term,’ and continued to highlight the risk for a higher exchange rate should ‘New Zealand’s relative growth outlook continued to be perceived as favorable despite the lower terms of trade.’ At the same time, the central bank head warned ‘excessive credit growth could hinder rebalancing of the economy and accentuate existing vulnerabilities’ as household and businesses take advantage of record-low borrowing costs, and the uptick in private sector borrowing will certainly limit the RBNZ’s scope to ease policy further as it heightens the risk for an asset bubble.

As the RBNZ sees the persistent strength in the local currency having a dampening effect on the real economy, we may see Governor Wheeler continue to rely on the transmission mechanisms to talk down the exchange rate, and we should see the central bank carry its wait-and-see approach into the following year as policy makers anticipate the rebuilding efforts from the Christchurch earthquake to spur domestic growth. Despite the dismal data coming out of the region, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps reflect a 22% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the December 5 meeting, and the central bank may continue to endorse a neutral policy stance in 2013 in order to mitigate the threat for an asset bubble.

As the 10, 20, 50 and 100 Day moving averages on the NZDUSD start to converge with one another, the indicators instill a neutral outlook for the pair, and the kiwi-dollar may continue to track sideways ahead of the December meeting as it trades above the 0.7900 figure. However, we will keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it comes up against interim support around the 42 figure, and the oscillator may paint a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD should it continue to approach oversold territory. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES