We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇯🇵 Housing Starts YoY Actual: -12.9% Expected: -12.1% Previous: -7.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • 🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence Actual: 24.0 Previous: 21.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Housing Starts YoY due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -12.1% Previous: -7.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 21.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.14%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.47%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RqW7nbBjB3
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.28% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.12% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4JS19zN9h3
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: -0.05% FTSE 100: -1.04% France 40: -1.29% Germany 30: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/KJYkjRqknS
  • USD/ZAR: A rally from here could be an important tell as to whether the level seen as support previously (17.76) will turn into a point of resistance for sellers to lean against. Get your $USDZAR technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/TNsQ4JJu6E https://t.co/GMxZj0n8XP
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/j71z9WYeBm
  • My trading video for today: "S&P 500 and $AUDUSD Await Trump China Presser, $EURJPY Climbs on Stimulus" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/29/SP-500-and-AUDUSD-Await-Trump-Statement-EURJPY-Climbs-on-Stimulus.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9
FOREX: RBNZ Offers Mixed Signals on Kiwi – Forecast “Partly Cloudy”

FOREX: RBNZ Offers Mixed Signals on Kiwi – Forecast “Partly Cloudy”

2012-10-27 04:07:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
RBNZ_Offers_Mixed_Signals_on_Kiwi_Forecast_Partly_Cloudy_body_nzd.png, FOREX: RBNZ Offers Mixed Signals on Kiwi – Forecast “Partly Cloudy”

Fundamental Forecast for New Zealand Dollar: Neutral

The New Zealand Dollar had a strong week, surprisingly finishing best among the majors, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its key interest rate on hold at 2.50%, bucking some dark horse expectations for a rate cut mainly due to regional weakness in Australia and China, both of which are vital trading partners for New Zealand. But with risk-aversion prevalent, as confirmed by the drop in precious metals and equity indexes, and some contradictory commentary from the new RBNZ head honcho, the Kiwi’s gains weren’t able to extend further. Despite the Kiwi’s outperformance this week, we remain neutral, though weighted to the upside.

On exogenous influences: while the forecast is sunny at home, storm clouds are brewing abroad (not dissimilar to Hurricane Sandy approaching New York City). There’s little New Zealand can do either – its growth is largely dependent on a robust global economy supported mainly emerging Asia. What we’ve seen is that Chinese data is trending higher recently, which negates this influence for now, barring a major data miss down the line.

With no data, then, the Kiwi should be looking higher. But two things are hurting its prospects. First, Europe. Back in February, and as noted numerous times in this forecast over the past few months, Moody’s Investors Service published a report showing that the New Zealand economy stood increasingly susceptible to Euro-zone risks, mainly due to their financial sector. This represents a great deal of uncertainty for the next few days as well (see more: Euro Fundamentals Increasingly Negative, but Outlook Hinges on Spain).

An outside influence will be what new RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler says as a follow-up to some curious comments this week. After the RBNZ held its key rate, Governor Wheeler said that the “Reserve Bank has scope to lower interest rates if needed,” and even mentioned quantitative easing and intervention. While this is unlikely, as he stated, it’s a scary idea that another major currency would be befallen to a massive balance sheet expansion, thus making it unappealing and more unpredictable (see: Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar).

Overall, global risk trends aren’t firm enough to offer a clear picture for the week ahead, and we thus are choosing to take a “neutral” bias once more. We still believe Chinese data is firming up in the short-term, which should help all regional currencies and the commodity currencies (both of which apply to the New Zealand Dollar). However, the Euro-zone presents a significant risk, and alongside a very confusing RBNZ, we maintain a neutral outlook for the coming five days. – CV

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.