News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/Q0yRRpMpPX
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/pSeSiNnmHe
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/iVOEuK40rn
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/ltEO5dpKux
  • WTI crude oil is currently trading up against major resistance via the 2019 and 2020 highs within the confines of a channel; something has to give. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MO9foRjm2y https://t.co/YhBFdvZDEb
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/eVDwmFTaIg
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/8B8hqHahm1
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
New Zealand Dollar Eyes Inflation Data amid Empty Docket

New Zealand Dollar Eyes Inflation Data amid Empty Docket

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
New_Zealand_Dollar_Eyes_Inflation_Data_amid_Empty_Docket_body_Picture_5.png, New Zealand Dollar Eyes Inflation Data amid Empty Docket

New Zealand Dollar Eyes Inflation Data amid Empty Docket

Fundamental Forecast for New Zealand Dollar: Neutral

The New Zealand Dollar had a weak past five days save for Friday’s performance, shedding 0.07 percent against the US Dollar and finishing third-worst among the majors covered by DailyFX. But for the Friday rally, the New Zealand Dollar was the worst performing major through Thursday, shedding 0.89 percent against the US Dollar – this largely has to do with the Kiwi’s exposure to Europe (more on this below). Going forward, with another thin docket on our hands for New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looming the week after, we expect the Kiwi’s price action to be determined by global risk-trends rather than pure New Zealand economic fundamentals. And, in light of the state of Europe, we have a neutral but slightly bearish outlook on the Kiwi for the week ahead.

Like the past two weeks, the economic calendar for New Zealand is rather then – in fact, but for one key print on Monday, the docket would be entirely void of any significant data. But with that said, the data due Monday is very important with respect to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision the following week: the second quarter inflation figures. Inflation remains under control in New Zealand in recent terms, only expected to have risen by 0.5% on a quarterly-basis, a Bloomberg News survey shows. However, on a yearly-basis, the more important gauge for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, price pressures are forecasted to have dropped from 1.6% to 1.1%.

If weaker price pressures are becoming a problem, we expect the RBNZ to take note of this and hint at a possible rate cut to stimulate the economy going forward. This would certainly fit in with global central bank rhetoric, in which we’ve already seen the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the People’s Bank of China step into the markets and unveil new, looser monetary policies over the past several weeks. A weak print would be bearish for the New Zealand Dollar; higher price pressures, especially on a yearly-basis, would be bullish.

Still, concerns globally are what are going to drive the Kiwi in the coming days, as aside from the inflation reading; there’s nothing else worth paying attention to on the docket for New Zealand, specifically. Mainly, Euro-zone concerns will be driving the New Zealand Dollar.

To wit: On February 6, Moody’s Investors Service said that the New Zealand economy was among the “most exposed” to the crisis, further noting that its banking system (along with Australia’s and Korea’s) is “more vulnerable to the first-round impact of a further worsening of the euro area crisis than other systems in Asia Pacific.” Indeed, since mid-March, when the Euro-zone crisis started reheating, New Zealand 5-year CDS have climbed over 33 percent, from 65.98 to 88.18 at the time of writing today. This is still much improved from its peak this year, when it climbed as high as 109.00 in early-June. Nonetheless, when Euro-zone issues come back – we’ve seen leaders’ attempts to stabilize markets fail in October and November 2011, late-February and early-March 2012, and then again after the Spanish bailout in June 2012 – the New Zealand Dollar will be most exposed. Because of these concerns, and given the weak inflation print expected, we maintain a neutral if not bearish tone for the Kiwi in the coming days. –CV

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES