News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/2L5DGk7cxl
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/zRBB1hmhJm
  • USD/CAD has bounced off a key support area on Friday and could potentially charge higher in the coming week as risk-aversion over coronavirus fears has started to dominate market moves. Get your weekly CAD technical forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/bySyBXTAdr https://t.co/y6UqD0quGN
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/sPcCTQfaRd
  • The US Dollar slipped last week after the Federal Reserve calmed taper timeline talks. Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure may rekindle upside USD bets if it impressive. Get your weekly USD forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/4KDanAA0Q1 https://t.co/ZZWpIZlZBo
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/J0F9xIw2I0
  • The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 find themselves with significantly different technical formations but traders may find cause for optimism in both indices. Get your weekly equities technical forecast from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/22fvav620W https://t.co/ajXEhMQhUp
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/wRwHXFbbBW
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/ZWwGB8J6I7
  • Ethereum is starting to outperform Bitcoin again ahead of ETH’s latest upgrade, while Binance continues to pare back business areas amid ongoing regulatory pressure. Get your crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ul4TIfI9bv https://t.co/Ht5Mr0uu91
Japanese Yen May Gain if Uncertainty On Iran Deal Hurts Sentiment

Japanese Yen May Gain if Uncertainty On Iran Deal Hurts Sentiment

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen daily Chart

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen swung last week as expected as USD rose, then sentiment declined
  • More of the same dynamic can repeat next week with US CPI data and Fed speak
  • A pinch of uncertainty over Iran deal outcome makes the anti-risk unit appealing

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Last Week’s Recap: Yen Swung As Projected

As expected, the Japanese Yen swung against its US cousin last week. First, USD/JPY rose to a February 5 high and then came down to where it started at the beginning of the week by Friday. That was partly driven by initial US Dollar strength ahead of the FOMC monetary policy announcement. Then, comments from Iran’s Foreign Minister soured sentiment, boosting the anti-risk currency. More of the same trading dynamic seems ahead.

Week Ahead: Uncertainty on Iran Deadline Makes Yen Attractive

A status quo Bank of Japan, which dropped the statement on the timing of reaching 2 percent inflation around fiscal year 2019, makes for what will most likely be tepid Yen reaction to local economic data as usual. However, we will get the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions on the April monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. There may be some more details to be had there on inflation estimates.

On the external front, we do have April’s US inflation report on Thursday. There, the headline rate is expected to tick up to +2.5% y/y. In May’s rate decision, the Fed upgraded its views on CPI. Rising price pressures may boost the US Dollar broadly speaking and bode-ill for its Japanese counterpart. The catch here is that if sentiment declines on tighter credit expectations, then gains could be limited against the Yen if the latter also rallies.

The same situation could also be said when looking at Fed member commentary next week. On Tuesday, Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an SNB/IMF event in Zurich. Then, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic will offer s speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy. If both of these policymakers echo recent relatively hawkish outlooks, then the Yen could balance between USD gains and how stocks behave as they did last week.

Finally, the deadline for US President Donald Trump to extend sanction waivers on Iran is May 12. Lately, the chances of such an outcome have been reduced as Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the country won’t renegotiate the nuclear deal. If risk trends take another turn for the worse on the doubt of the outcome, then the Yen could gain. Taking this into consideration, this pinch of uncertainty makes the Japanese Yen look attractive and the fundamental forecast will reflect that as such. The call will have to be bullish.

Japanese Yen Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES