We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Feb 28: - Fed speak - US🇺🇸 income/spending data, consumer sentiment - India🇮🇳 + Canada🇨🇦 GDP - Consumer confidence: New Zealand🇳🇿 + UK🇬🇧 - CPI: Germany🇩🇪, France🇫🇷, Italy🇮🇹 + Eurozone🇪🇺 - South Korea🇰🇷 industrial production Click here ⬇️to learn more https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • Feb 27: - Bank of Korea🇰🇷 rate decision - French🇫🇷 President Macron meets with Italian🇮🇹 Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte - Norway🇳🇴 sov wealth fund publishes annual report - US GDP🇺🇸, durable goods data - Economic confidence data in Italy, Eurozone🇪🇺 - Vietnam🇻🇳 trade + CPI
  • Feb 26: - EIA crude oil 🛢️inventory report - South African🇿🇦 Finance Minister presents 2020-21 budget which will likely impact their sovereign credit rating - Hong Kong🇭🇰 GDP - US new home sales🏠learn why housing is important here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2019/12/30/Why-Markets-Will-be-Closely-Watching-Housing-Data-in-2020.html
  • Feb 24: - Trump meets with Modi - German🇩🇪 IFO business confidence - New Zealand🇳🇿 retail sales - China🇨🇳 may announce decision to delay annual meeting National People's Congress Feb 25: - World Bank President speech - GDP: Germany🇩🇪, Mexico🇲🇽 - US🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence
  • Hello there, traders! We may have a potentially volatile week ahead of us against the backdrop of panic from the #coronavirus🦠: Feb 22: - #G20SaudiArabia (Main topic will be global impact of virus) - Results from #IranElections2020 (hardliners expected to make a big splash)
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9AGxw https://t.co/BLxeiLzcLR
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.45% Gold: 0.27% Oil - US Crude: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3CldFB8zgt
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China's passenger #car sales slumped 92% y/y in the first half of February due to the #coronavirus outbreak, said the Passe…
  • My trading video for today: 'Dollar's Run Earns $EURUSD, $USDJPY and $AUDUSD Breaks; Nasdaq Fronts Risk Retreat' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/02/21/Dollars-Run-Earns-EURUSD-USDJPY-and-AUDUSD-Breaks-Nasdaq-Fronts-Risk-Retreat.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/nUMqyxrVag
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.09% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4bDhDUCOdq
Japanese Yen May Gain if Uncertainty On Iran Deal Hurts Sentiment

Japanese Yen May Gain if Uncertainty On Iran Deal Hurts Sentiment

2018-05-05 03:40:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:
US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen daily Chart

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen swung last week as expected as USD rose, then sentiment declined
  • More of the same dynamic can repeat next week with US CPI data and Fed speak
  • A pinch of uncertainty over Iran deal outcome makes the anti-risk unit appealing

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Last Week’s Recap: Yen Swung As Projected

As expected, the Japanese Yen swung against its US cousin last week. First, USD/JPY rose to a February 5 high and then came down to where it started at the beginning of the week by Friday. That was partly driven by initial US Dollar strength ahead of the FOMC monetary policy announcement. Then, comments from Iran’s Foreign Minister soured sentiment, boosting the anti-risk currency. More of the same trading dynamic seems ahead.

Week Ahead: Uncertainty on Iran Deadline Makes Yen Attractive

A status quo Bank of Japan, which dropped the statement on the timing of reaching 2 percent inflation around fiscal year 2019, makes for what will most likely be tepid Yen reaction to local economic data as usual. However, we will get the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions on the April monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. There may be some more details to be had there on inflation estimates.

On the external front, we do have April’s US inflation report on Thursday. There, the headline rate is expected to tick up to +2.5% y/y. In May’s rate decision, the Fed upgraded its views on CPI. Rising price pressures may boost the US Dollar broadly speaking and bode-ill for its Japanese counterpart. The catch here is that if sentiment declines on tighter credit expectations, then gains could be limited against the Yen if the latter also rallies.

The same situation could also be said when looking at Fed member commentary next week. On Tuesday, Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an SNB/IMF event in Zurich. Then, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic will offer s speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy. If both of these policymakers echo recent relatively hawkish outlooks, then the Yen could balance between USD gains and how stocks behave as they did last week.

Finally, the deadline for US President Donald Trump to extend sanction waivers on Iran is May 12. Lately, the chances of such an outcome have been reduced as Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the country won’t renegotiate the nuclear deal. If risk trends take another turn for the worse on the doubt of the outcome, then the Yen could gain. Taking this into consideration, this pinch of uncertainty makes the Japanese Yen look attractive and the fundamental forecast will reflect that as such. The call will have to be bullish.

Japanese Yen Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.