News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here:
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

2017-07-08 01:56:00
David Song, Strategist
USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

USD/JPY is quickly approaching the May-high (114.37) ahead of the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, with the pair at risk for a larger advance as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017.

Fresh comments from Chair Janet Yellen may ultimately yield a bullish reaction in the greenback as Fed officials hold a growing discussion to unload the balance sheet over the coming months. With the economy now projected to expand an annualized 2.2% this year, the central bank head may endorse a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement another rate-hike ahead of 2018 especially as the region nears full-employment. In turn, Fed Fund Futures may start to reflect a higher probability for a December rate-hike, and USD/JPY may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks to its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control.

However, the dollar may face a more bearish fate should Chair Yellen refrain from revealing anything new. The central bank head may largely promote a wait-and-see approach in front of U.S. lawmakers amid the mixed data prints coming out of the economy, and the FOMC may merely try to buy more time at the next interest rate decision on July 26 amid the ongoing weakness in household earnings.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

The broader outlook for USD/JPY has perked up as the pair makes a more meaningful attempt to break out of the downward trend from late-2016, and the exchange rate may extend the rebound from the June-low (108.80) as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trends carried over from the previous month. A break of the May-high (114.37) may expose the next topside hurdle around 116.00 (23.6% expansion) to 116.10 (78.6% expansion) especially as the momentum indicator appears to be pushing into overbought territory.

Nevertheless, lack of momentum to break and close above the Fibonacci overlap around 113.80 (23.6% expansion) to 114.30 (23.6% retracement) may produce range-bound conditions in USD/JPY, with the first area of support coming in around 112.40 (61.8% retracement) to 112.80 (38.2% expansion) followed by 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement). Check out the Quarterly DailyFX Forecasts for additional trading ideas.

USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

Retail trader data shows 46.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.14 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 10.5% lower than yesterday and 20.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 40.8% higher from last week.For more information on retail sentiment, check out the new gauge developed by DailyFX based on trader positioning.

Sign up for David's e-mail distribution list

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.