We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.1036 S2: 1.1056 S1: 1.1067 R1: 1.1087 R2: 1.1095 R3: 1.1115 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US President Donald Trump expected to sign the Hong Kong Bill -BBG citing person familiar with the matter $USDJPY
  • #Yen up in morning Thursday trade after US President Donald Trump said he thinks China is not "steeping up to the level" he wants in #tradetalks. This is as the #HKBill passes in the House, heading his way for potential signing. Risk aversion for Asia may be ahead $USDJPY $AUDJPY https://t.co/4s7JBEJPIE
  • US House passes the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act $DXY $USDCNH
  • Since the metal’s peak on September 4, the total ETF holdings of #silver have fallen by 19.4 million troy ounces. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/vaNAQE2wTm https://t.co/ycFfYCBYxN
  • RT @LiveSquawk: US House Approves Bill Requiring Regular Reviews Of Hong Kong's Special Financial Status, Sends To White House
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1471.50 (-0.07%), #Aluminum 1731.00 (-0.40%), and #Copper 5875.00 (+0.77%). [delayed]
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.21% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.27% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AUNGS781ie
  • Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Freeland says hard work on USMCA ratification being done $CAD
  • While $XAG might enjoy a bump if risk aversion picks up over the next few days, I think the medium-term trend lower remains intact Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/11/20/Silver-Price-Forecast-XAGUSD-May-Fall-Further-Despite-Risk-Aversion.html?CHID=9&QPID=917701 https://t.co/TkkZgHVnDW
Japanese Yen Strength is its Own Undoing – Watch for Weakness

Japanese Yen Strength is its Own Undoing – Watch for Weakness

2016-04-02 01:48:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
Share:
Japanese Yen Strength is its Own Undoing – Watch for WeaknessJapanese Yen Strength is its Own Undoing – Watch for Weakness

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bearish

The Japanese Yen finished the week higher versus the fast-falling US Dollar, but key disappointments in domestic economic data and Nikkei 225 losses kept the JPY lower against other major FX counterparts.

Historically we have seen the Yen strengthen (USD/JPY weaken) on domestic equity market sell-offs. And yet this time is different for a key reason—both the Yen and the Nikkei stand to lose if the domestic economy continues to underperform. A sell-off in Japanese stocks into the fiscal year-end (March 31) left the Nikkei in negative territory for fiscal year 2015—the first such annual loss in three years. Profit warnings and disappointing Bank of Japan Tankan survey result forced further sell-offs on April 1, and current price momentum and broader sentiment favors further Japanese equity weakness.

The Yen could nonetheless continue to weaken alongside stocks for one simple reason—economic underperformance will encourage the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates further into negative territory. Indeed, the BoJ sent shockwaves throughout global markets as it surprised most and cut its benchmark overnight rate to -0.10% at its January meeting. Domestic rates subsequently plummeted, and Japanese Government Bond yields are now negative for bonds maturing in under 10 years. Holding funds in Japanese Yen is an expensive proposition if you’re required to pay the government for lending it money.

Continued turmoil and Yen strength in itself lead many to believe the BoJ will move rates lower at its April 27 meeting, and this will only make it worse for domestic investors to receive any real (or nominal) rates of return on their JPY holdings. It is little surprise that individual investors own a miniscule share of total outstanding Japanese Government Bonds—few rational investors would want to pay interest to lend money. The Bank of Japan itself is far and away the largest holder, and their Quantitative Easing program already buys twice the monthly supply of newly-issued JGBs. At some level this represents opportunity—buy government bonds with the expectation that prices will rise as the BoJ steps in. Yet this is also a clear market distortion, and a jump in bond market volatility prices confirms that buying JGBs is a risky proposition.

Thus we may continue to see capital flow out of Japan which itself will keep pressure on the JPY exchange rate. The USD/JPY in particular seems likely to test near-term lows, but that is just as easily a function of US Dollar weakness instead of Yen strength. It would take a fairly significant shift in Bank of Japan policy to improve outlook for the domestic currency.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.