We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
USD/JPY Eyes March Low - Japan to Post First Trade Surplus Since 2012

USD/JPY Eyes March Low - Japan to Post First Trade Surplus Since 2012

2015-04-18 00:14:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
USD/JPY Eyes March Low - Japan to Post First Trade Surplus Since 2012

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The fundamental event risks lined up for the final full-week of April may heighten the appeal of the Yen and spark a further decline in USD/JPY as the Japanese economy gets on a firmer footing.

With Japan expected to post a trade surplus for the first time since June 2012, prospects for a stronger recovery in 2015 may encourage the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to retain a wait-and-see approach at the April 30 interest rate decision as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon. In turn, Japanese officials may continue scale back their verbal intervention on the local currency, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the Yen may continue to diminish over the near to medium-term as the central bank turns increasingly upbeat on the economy.

In contrast, the recent weakness in the U.S. may further dent expectations for a Fed rate hike in June, and another series of weaker-than-expected data prints may spark a larger correction in the greenback as interest rate expectations get pushed back. Despite expectations for a 0.6% rebound in U.S. Durable Goods, it seems as though lower energy prices are failing to drive private-sector consumption amid the ongoing weakness in retail spending, and another unexpected decline in demand for large-ticket items may trigger a larger correction in the greenback as it drags on the outlook for growth and inflation. In turn, we may see a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to retain the zero-interest rate policy beyond mid-2015 at the April 29 meeting.

With that said, the improving terms of trade for Japan paired with the ongoing slack in the U.S. economy may prompt a further decline in USD/JPY, and the pair may continue to give back the rebound from March (118.32) amid the shift in the policy outlook.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.