We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • $GBPUSD at the moment break-even straddles = 152pips meaning that for option traders to realize gains, the spot price must see a move greater than 152pips. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/odj2lLRrGf https://t.co/RXCBwHGluG
  • $EURGBP has fallen over 6% since August and is now rapidly approaching a critical support level not reached since May. Will a break below accelerate the aggressive selloff? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/CBM8Fg7vM0 https://t.co/0yDnEpzQqR
  • The #Euro is struggling for direction against the US Dollar but the near-term downtrend guiding it lower since late June remains firmly intact. Where is $EURUSD heading? Get your technical analysis from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/us6AINmuoe https://t.co/J4hQtyprYf
  • $DXY & $SPX500 hold steady after #FED rate cut. Get your update from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/vqXlKCMDYA
  • Dow Jones & Dax 30 levels to watch ahead of the fed from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/iUIrsygKz2
  • The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/xTKHOvrIqg https://t.co/vtHhdnF82Q
  • How can confidence in trading help with avoiding #FOMOintrading? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/MY7j9ISn4S https://t.co/n7XwfiDZz2
  • The week saw a slightly more dovish than expected RBA minutes increase the importance of the latest labour market report, which showed an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.3%. Where is $AUDUSD heading? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/odj2lLRrGf https://t.co/gmGjlGBvjv
  • #OOTT https://t.co/TLgP7dUqFv
  • #Silver’s recent bull run may have run its course in the short-term with the sharp sell-off from the September 4 high print at $19.66/oz.Where is Silver heading? Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/oVAZ4wPR7z https://t.co/1LvLXmqnwx
Japanese Yen Remains a Sell Until this Changes

Japanese Yen Remains a Sell Until this Changes

2014-05-09 22:29:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
Japanese Yen Remains a Sell Until this Changes

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

The Japanese Yen trades at critical resistance versus the US Dollar (USDJPY trades at support). Given extremely low volatility expectations it seems unlikely we see a major USDJPY breakdown, but any major surprises out of upcoming Japanese data could force sharp currency swings.

FX traders sent 1-month volatility prices on USDJPY derivatives to their lowest levels on record, and it’s obvious that very few expect to see big things through the foreseeable future. Our forex technical forecasts as well as sentiment-based outlook subsequently favor a USDJPY bounce off of the lows. Yet expectations often beget disappointment; what could force a major Japanese Yen breakout?

Top economic event risk comes from Japan’s Q1 GDP Growth numbers due Wednesday night/Thursday morning, and any surprises could shake the currency from its tight trading range. Consensus forecasts call for a substantial 4.2 percent annualized rate of economic growth in the first quarter. Such lofty expectations arguably leave risks to the downside for the data itself and the Japanese currency. But why is the JPY stuck in such miniscule trading ranges across the board?

Put simply, forex volatility is near record-lows as risky asset classes continue to outperform. Yen volatility may trade to further lows if the US S&P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 continue to trade onto fresh peaks.

In that sense it will be important to watch how Japanese equities respond to key economic data; any Nikkei 225 losses might actually result in Yen strength (USDJPY weakness) regardless of the economic implications of the news results.

The absence of any major surprises in upcoming event risk would likely leave the status quo intact. It’s important to note that the Yen has historically fallen in times of low volatility, and indeed we would argue that a further compression in vols should keep the USDJPY above key support. The risk is that material disappointments in data could force equity market tumbles and, by extension, a USDJPY breakdown. - DR

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.