We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • I approve of this dry humor. https://t.co/b42GmIZDlL
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/59cdbPc4l7
  • The #Nikkei 225 trades at 4-month highs after a 50% surge from the March low, while the RSI registers its first overbought readings since November 2019. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/pOEt698Ooi https://t.co/EHD2EHmQLW
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/8gGfGuw87o
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/VFxFMFWJ5L
  • Texas virus cases increase 2.4%, above 7-day average of 2.3% - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.68% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.56% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.40% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.41% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/KqzhTKmnaK
  • The divergence between weekly gains in the #Fed balance sheet and with the #SP500 continues to grow https://t.co/A7HQRtukwj
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -1.11% Silver: -1.74% Gold: -1.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oiiAzDSusO
  • The animal spirits were boisterous today as a blowout jobs report defied expectations of continued economic pain and malaise in the United States. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/1JydMIGLWz
USD/JPY at Risk for Key Break- U.S. NFPs, Japan’s VAT in Focus

USD/JPY at Risk for Key Break- U.S. NFPs, Japan’s VAT in Focus

2014-03-28 21:44:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
USDJPY-at-Risk-for-Key-Break--US-NFPs-Japans-VAT-in-Focus_body_Picture_5.png, USD/JPY at Risk for Key Break- U.S. NFPs, Japan’s VAT in Focus

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

Japan’s consumer-tax hike, which takes effect April 2014, certainly clouds the fundamental outlook for the Japanese Yen, while the technical formations highlight the risk for a major move as the USD/JPY remains stuck in the wedge/triangle from the beginning of the year.

Indeed, fears that the value-added tax (VAT) will slow the economic recovery may put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further embark on its easing cycle, and a meaningful shift in the policy outlook may generate a bullish breakout in the USD/JPY as it retains the upward trend carried over from 2013.

However, we may continue to see positive developments coming out of the Japanese economy as BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retains a positive outlook for the region, and the board may preserve its current policy throughout the medium-term as the central bank head sees scope to achieve the 2% inflation target as early as the end of FY 2014. With that said, easing bets for a further expansion in the BoJ’s asset-purchase program may continue to limit the topside for the USDJPY, and the pair may make another run at the 101.00 handle should it continue to carve a series of lower highs.

Beyond Japan’s economic docket, U.S Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may heavily impact the technical outlook ahead of the BoJ meeting on April 8 as the world’s largest economy is expected to add another 197K jobs in March, but we would need a meaningful deviation from the current forecast to see an impressive reaction as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. In turn, we will stay flat and wait for a meaningful break on the USDJPY as it continues to consolidate with the wedge/triangle. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.