News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.15% Gold: 0.11% Oil - US Crude: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.21% Wall Street: -0.35% FTSE 100: -0.94% France 40: -1.21% Germany 30: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • Markets have digested the realization that the rollout of the vaccine campaign does mean an immediate solution to the current economic and social problems. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • The $DXY continues to hold above the psychological level of 90 and is testing around 90.30 this morning. $USD
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Germany 30 for the first time since Dec 11, 2020 when Germany 30 traded near 13,135.60. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness.
  • ECB's Lane: - If favorable financing conditions can be maintained, maximum amount of asset purchases may not be necessary - Recent intensification of pandemic represents a significant downside risk, requires continuation of various fiscal support measures #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Elderson: - Impact of the crisis on the European banking sector has yet to be fully revealed - Consequences of Brexit still need to be dealt with - It is "high time" to complete the EU banking union through institutional/regulatory architecture, deposit insurance #ECB $EUR
  • Italy's coalition Democratic Party (PD) wants Conte to resign and guarantees support for him as head of new government - PD Lawmakers $EUR
  • $NZDUSD is back above 0.7200 this morning, trading near one of January's key levels for the pair. $NZD $USD
  • UK PM Johnson to visit Scotland to make impassioned plea for Scotland to reject narrow separatism - The Sun $GBP
Japanese Yen: G20 and GDP May Temporarily Hold Abe’s Ambitions

Japanese Yen: G20 and GDP May Temporarily Hold Abe’s Ambitions

Renee Mu, Currency Analyst
Japanese_Yen_G20_and_GDP_May_Temporarily_Hold_Abes_Ambitions_body_Picture_1.png, Japanese Yen: G20 and GDP May Temporarily Hold Abe’s Ambitions

Japanese Yen: G20 and GDP May Temporarily Hold Abe’s Ambitions

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

The Japanese Yen retraced to 92.74 against its US counterparty on Friday’s close - lower than last Friday’s close - as Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the pace of the Yen’s slide may have been too rapid. These comments – inconsistent to the theme Japanese officials have maintained - likely comes in recognition of the upcoming G20 meeting scheduled on February 15 to 16 in the coming week. The concerted effort of weakening the Yen has spurred serious criticism abroad. Such effort to manipulate the currency to boost the country’s own economy is believed by many to be an explicit shot fired in a more explicit currency war. Perhaps this is a means for the Japanese government to win some points with foreign finance ministers and central bank governors. Regardless, the USDJPY pair’s unfavorable close brings to a close a record breaking 12-week rally. A first step to a bigger turn?.

Traders should recognize that Aso’s comments are likely to be only short-term moverswhich do not provide any structural fundamental change. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is determined to apply an aggressive monetary easing policy to stimulus domestic economy. Furthermore, the accelerated retirement of BoJ Governor Shirawaka - announced this past week - is a clear indication that boosting competitiveness by driving down the Yen is an irreversible objective. Abe’s choice of new BOJ chief, no matter who he is, will likely put a more dovish policy in place through both an accelerated adoption and escalated scale future stimulus efforts.

Bold promises and actions by the Japanese government do, however, have positive impact on the country’s economy. Investors confidence in exports has swelled and anticipation of a nearer end to two decades of deflation is gaining traction. In order to keep the current optimism on Japan’s market, Abe has to carry out further monetary or fiscal policies to strengthen economy via an unpopular objective of weakening the Yen. If the BoJ would actually move up its introduction of its 13 trillion yen per month stimulus effort from January 2014 to sometime this year, the Japanese currency may very well revive its plunge and break to new two year lows.

Another factor to account for is risk appetite trends. US equity indexes have maintained their drive and broken to levels not seen since the financial crisis. Given the implications to general risk sentiment, if the stock market started to make a serious move lower, all the Yen crosses would very likely drop on carry unwind and profit-taking. AUDJPY and those pairings with the greatest yield differential would likely suffer the most; but given the distance the yen has moved, all yen crosses would undoubtedly suffer in such a scenario.

Looking into next week, besides the G-20 meeting, the Japanese 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may prove another top driver to the Yen’s gain through the short-term if the readings come in as or better-than-expected. The medium forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News calls for a rise of 0.1 percent in fourth quarter following a drop of 0.9 percent in last period. Traders may enter long the USDJPY pair after it retraces to a reasonable level such as 90 as in the longer period the Yen still have depreciation pressure from Japanese government. -RM

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.