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Japanese Yen To Appreciate Further As Intervention Threats Falter

Japanese Yen To Appreciate Further As Intervention Threats Falter

2011-10-28 23:47:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Japanese_Yen_To_Appreciate_Further_As_Intervention_Threats_Falter_body_Picture_5.png, Japanese Yen To Appreciate Further As Intervention Threats FalterJapanese_Yen_To_Appreciate_Further_As_Intervention_Threats_Falter_body_Picture_6.png, Japanese Yen To Appreciate Further As Intervention Threats Falter

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

The Japanese Yen advanced to a fresh record-high in October and the USD/JPY may trend lower in the month ahead as market participants diversify away from the reserve currency. Indeed, the dollar-yen slipped to 75.65 following a shift in trader sentiment, but threatens of a Yen intervention may dampen demands for the low-yielding currency as the government pledges to balance the risks surrounding the region.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Jun Azumi, vowed to take ‘bold’ actions against the Yen as the marked appreciation in the local currency dampens the prospects for an export-led recovery, and the government may make a greater push to specifically target the exchange rate as the fundamental outlook for the world’s third-largest economy deteriorates. Nevertheless, it seems as though the Bank of Japan will continue to take a different route as it expands its nonstandard program by another JPY 5 trillion, and the central bank may resort to easing monetary policy further rather than intervening in the currency market. Indeed, the BoJ voted 8-1 to increase its asset purchases, with board member Ryuzo Miyao arguing for a JPY 10 trillion expansion, and we are likely to see the central bank take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy as it aims ‘to ensure a successful transition to a sustainable growth path with price stability.’ However, retail traders continue to look for a bottom in the USD/JPY as the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment index currently stands at a whopping 14.99, and the contrarian indicator foreshadows lower prices for the pair as market participants try to fade the recent strength in the Yen.

As the USD/JPY resumes the downward trend carried over from back in 2007, we are likely to see fresh record-low prices in November, and the BoJ may have little choice but to expand monetary policy further as government officials maintain a cautious outlook for the region. Nevertheless, there is a risk of seeing a short-term correction next week should the relative strength index continue to hold above 30, but the exchange rate may extend the decline from earlier this month if the oscillator pushes into oversold territory. - DS

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