We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
  • The #Euro remains weak against a range of currencies and any move higher is struggling to gain traction as the single currency continues to be sold-off. Get your #EUR technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/9B2m0kmd4d https://t.co/ZENxpC59mP
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
  • $Gld prices are poised to mark the highest weekly-close in nearly seven-years, but the bulls aren’t in the clear yet. Here are the XAU/USD levels that matter next week. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/yeTH6HwncQ https://t.co/6sIpxTSNaX
Japanese Yen to Rise as Intervention Targets Volatility, Not Direction

Japanese Yen to Rise as Intervention Targets Volatility, Not Direction

2011-03-19 05:21:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
Japanese_Yen_to_Rise_as_Intervention_Targets_Volatility_Not_Direction_body_TOF_03182011_JPY.png, Japanese Yen to Rise as Intervention Targets Volatility, Not Direction

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

After a week of breakneck volatility that saw the Japanese Yen surge to a record high only to rapidly reverse course amid the first coordinated G7 FX market intervention in over the decade, the outlook going forward appears anything but clear. Looking ahead, policymakers with a clear challenge vis-à-vis the exchange rate: on one hand, a stronger Yen threatens the critical export sector that will be seen as instrumental in helping the economy recover; on the other, the Yen's increasing purchasing power will help to dull the cost of recovery efforts for individual as well as public and private entities considering so many goods and resources in Japan are imported. On balance, this means Japanese officials will look to manage Yen volatility rather than push prices in a given direction, suggesting renewed strength may be allowed to progress undeterred provided it progresses gradually.

With this in mind, the reasoning behind renewed Yen strength is compelling given the considerable headwinds still facing risk sentiment, hinting repatriation and an unwinding of carry trades will pressure the Japanese unit higher. First, while yielding a burst of knee-jerk optimism, the G7 action left core issues in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake largely unresolved. Indeed, casualties continue to mount, the extent of the damage and cost of reconstruction remains uncertain, and the threat of disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant continues to linger.

Meanwhile, a new phase of the Libyan crisis began to unfold as the UN Security Council authorized the establishment of a no-fly zone and gave its member countries a virtually blank check to apply force to “protect citizens”, approving just about anything shy of outright occupation. As we have noted previously, markets see the situation in the North African country as a trial run for the worst case scenario in the aftermath of a protest flare-up, so the path chosen by the major powers from here (whether that is to materially intervene or not) will be weighed up as if it were happening to a far more significant crude supplier than Libya itself (i.e. Saudi Arabia). Increasingly intense unrest in Bahrain and Yemen further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

Finally, Friday will bring the much-anticipated summit of Euro Zone finance ministers that has been widely expected to produce a so-called “grand bargain” on dealing with the debt crisis on the currency bloc’s periphery. As we discussed in detail last week, the preliminary outlines of the scheme amounted to nominal progress but fell woefully short of a true bulwark against further sovereign stress, pointing to a wave of disappointed selling across the spectrum of risky assets (and to the benefit of funding currencies, including Yen) if the final version is not substantially strengthened.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.