News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

Justin McQueen, Strategist

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • GBP Lifted by Hawkish BoE Comments
  • Lack of Domestic Data Turns Focus on The US
  • Risks That Reopening Plans Need to Wait Provide a Headwind for GBP

GBP has managed to hold onto gains stemming from BoE’s Vlieghe, who provided rather hawkish comments having discussed conditions where a rate hike in 2022 may be appropriate. The move in the Pound highlights the markets elevated sensitivity to changes in the stance from central banks (RBNZ another example). Alongside this, while Vlieghe is leaving the BoE at the end of August, the fact that he is typically more dovish relative to other MPC members may give a sense of where the rest of the member's stance lies. That said, money markets are fully pricing in a move to 0.25% by Nov 22, a further hawkish repricing may see that shift towards Q3 2022.

Looking ahead to next week, BoE Governor Bailey will be speaking on Tuesday and Thursday where GBP traders will be paying close attention to any further hawkish signals.

The Need to Know Complete Guide on Trading the Pound (GBP)

BoE Money Markets Pricing in a Q4 2022 Hike

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

Source: Refinitiv

The economic calendar is light on the UK side, therefore much of the focus will be on the plethora of tier 1 releases across the Atlantic, most notably the US NFP report. As such, the USD will likely dictate much of the price action in GBP/USD. Elsewhere, as Covid cases pick up in the UK following the spread of the Indian variant, the R number has edged higher, now ranging 1.0-1.1 from 0.9-1.1. In turn, with the UK PM sounding cautious over the lifting of all Covid restrictions planned for June 21st, risks that the UK may need to wait could be a headwind for the currency.

US Tier 1 Data Releases

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

Source: DailyFX

GBP/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES