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Sterling Weekly Forecast - Brexit Talks Continue, Is the End Game Near?

Sterling Weekly Forecast - Brexit Talks Continue, Is the End Game Near?

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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Chart created with TradingView

Sterling Weekly Outlook: Neutral

  • EU/UK intensive talks to continue
  • Will France move on fisheries access?

The song seemingly remains the same as EU and UK trade negotiators resume talks with little concrete evidence that a deal between the two will be struck. However, the overall tone of the new talks is a lot more positive with the EU stating that they will intensify talks, including the legal texts, in order to give both sides the best chance of achieving a deal.

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There were market reports later in the session that French President Emmanuel Macron maybe be willing to compromise over access to UK fishing waters in order to get a deal. Access to UK fishing waters is one of the three main stumbling blocks in the talks so far, alongside a commitment to a level playing field and the reach of the European Court of Justice.

There is little in the way of market-moving UK economic data on the DailyFX Calendar next week.

GBPUSD traders will need to be aware of any developments with regards to the US stimulus bill, with both sides coming closer to passing a deal, but close enough so far. The US dollar has been under selling pressure of late as talks stall and the US dollar basket traded at a six-week low on Wednesday. Cable has traded as high as 1.3184 this week when the EU announced plans to get talks moving again, but the pair have drifted lower going into the weekend. A neutral stance on Sterling seems prudent ahead of any official EU/UK trade talk news.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (April – October 23, 2020)

GBP/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -4% 1%
Weekly 0% -11% -3%
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IG client sentiment data show 36.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.74 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 17.32% higher than yesterday and 27.12% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.02% lower than yesterday and 51.58% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

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What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.