News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bruno Le Maire, France's Finance Minister, sees economic growth -15% during second coronavirus lockdown -BBG
  • US equity indices letting out some air since ripping higher in afternoon trade. Eyes on earnings from Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google due after-hours. $NDX: +2.54% $SPX: +1.60% $DJI: +0.94% https://t.co/itdInUjTLR
  • Gold prices have reversed off confluence downtrend resistance but keeps XAU/USD within a broader September range. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/9hJDEUcnYv https://t.co/jYEUz8FzUl
  • US Tech Earnings After the Close https://t.co/jAGIcAGbr3
  • Indeed... because my report was posted many hours ago https://t.co/SKzJUGRG9h
  • And a great guest you were too. Thank you! https://t.co/noZQNreeEF
  • USD/CAD trades to a fresh monthly high (1.3390) as the US Dollar appreciates on the back of waning risk appetite. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/1su6hczNz3 https://t.co/9PqqeS7Seb
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.45% Silver: 0.15% Gold: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZbuJCtwSLe
  • Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Oil Sinks to Fresh Four-Month-Lows https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/10/29/Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-WTI-Crude-Oil-Sinks-to-Fresh-Four-Month-Lows.html https://t.co/VZkDC7TZ3t
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.31%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 68.35%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/InT3aJBPqT
Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook: EU/UK Trade Talks - It's Time to Decide

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook: EU/UK Trade Talks - It's Time to Decide

2020-10-10 20:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

EU/UK Trade Talks and GBP/USD Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • European Council Meeting on October 15-16 is key.
  • Both sides are making positive noises but remain far apart.
Advertisement

The EU and UK trade negotiating teams will be hard at work next week trying to iron out the many differences that they currently have against a time-constrained backdrop. The EC meeting starts on Thursday next week and the EU have always pointed to this meeting as the last chance to get a deal done and then ratified before December 31. UK PM Boris Johnson has also chosen October 15 as the last day to see if a deal can be struck between the two sides before talks go down the WTO-route. Flexibility remains the key in these talks and these deadlines may well be flexible if both sides believe a deal can be struck. Both sides are making appeasing sounds but reiterate that the other side has to ‘move more’ before a deal can be made. The markets currently see a better chance than not of a deal taking place, although it may just be a bare-boned no tariff deal to make sure trade flows are uninterrupted from the start of next year.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our New Q4 Sterling Forecast
Get My Guide

Sterling currently trades around 1.3000 against a weak US dollar and is approaching initial resistance off the 50-dma at 1.3022. The CCI indicator suggests the pair are overbought but with a potentially volatile period ahead next week, the pair can become extremely overbought or oversold in a short-space of time.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (February – October 9, 2020)

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook: EU/UK Trade Talks - It's Time to Decide
GBP/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% -12% -1%
Weekly 29% -39% -15%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

IG client sentiment datashows 45.10% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.22 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.88% higher than yesterday and 12.76% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.07% higher than yesterday and 14.58% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES