News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/s0tvG7QXwJ
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.20% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/n7Phs46BX1
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (OCT) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -28.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-22
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.46% Wall Street: -0.58% US 500: -0.58% Germany 30: -0.60% France 40: -0.82% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/xog2DUbSzY
  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Key Levels - $GBPUSD poised to push higher after breaching key resistance. - $GBPJPY rebound struggling to break above the August low. - $EURGBP coiling up above key support https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2020/10/22/British-Pound-Price-Outlook-GBPUSD-GBPJPY-EURGBP-Key-Levels.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GBP https://t.co/Qr9Tl7Qse9
  • The US Dollar is once again losing ground against #ASEAN FX as $USDGD and $USDIDR may be readying to extend losses. Will $USDMYR and $USDPHP follow? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/10/22/US-Dollar-Technical-Forecast-USDSGD-USDIDR-USDPHP-USDMYR.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/olomq6jsAD
  • 🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (SEP) Actual: $2.230B Expected: $3.55B Previous: $4.35B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-22
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/MX68zib6BX
  • https://t.co/2ITVYWYrf4 https://t.co/PBzWTjcs05
  • Market Update $USD and $JPY slipping from session-high as the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD attempts to claw back lost ground #ASX200 continuing to storm higher while #gold, #crudeoil and #SP500 futures struggle to rebound from session-lows
British Pound (GBP) Outlook - Sterling Traders Should Prepare For a Volatile Week Ahead

British Pound (GBP) Outlook - Sterling Traders Should Prepare For a Volatile Week Ahead

2020-10-02 16:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • EU-UK trade talks coming down to the wire.
  • Sterling exposed to volatile moves.
GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our Brand New Q4 Sterling Forecast
Get My Guide

Sterling traders will need to buckle up next week as GBP-volatility is expected to return with a bang. Indeed volatility may start even before the Europe session opens on Monday, depending on the outcome of talks between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday. A recognition that talks can proceed with increased intensity will see Sterling rally hard, while any talk that negotiations are gridlocked will see the British Pound sold off in short order. Other EU leaders may also opine on negotiations so traders should be wary of potential ‘tape bombs’ all weekend.

We noted in the Q4 GBP forecast that EU-UK trade negotiations were just one of three Sterling drivers for the next three months. The ongoing spread of COVID-19 continues to hit the UK economy with several local lockdowns recently imposed, although the figures for hospitalization, the use of ventilators, and fatalities are still markedly lower than the unfortunate peaks hit between early-April and early-May. The spread of the pandemic and the government’s reaction will be another real-time driver of Sterling.

Next week’s UK economic data and events calendar are light with only the monthly GDP figure at the end of the week of any real note. For all market-moving economic data releases and events see the DailyFX Calendar.

GBP/USD has crept higher all week, mainly on better EU/UK trade sentiment, and eyes the three-week high around 1.3010. Any positive trade mood music should see this level taken out, and with it, the 50-dma, leaving little in the way of a further push higher.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (March – October 2, 2020)

GBPUSD Price Chart
GBP/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -26% 44% 13%
Weekly -13% 27% 12%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Retail trader data shows 45.49% of traders are net-short with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.20 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 16.35% lower than yesterday and 19.99% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.53% lower than yesterday and 3.60% higher from last week.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our Brand New Q4 Sterling Forecast
Get My Guide

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES