We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Japanese #Yen may rise if a growing number of coronavirus cases around the world puts a premium on anti-risk assets. JPY’s gains may be amplified if corporate earnings fail to impress investors. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/yP4revKq6J https://t.co/7smgRKspLU
  • The US Dollar index (DXY) may face range bound conditions over the coming days amid the failed attempt to test the June low (95.75). Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/GsBcE6Z4G6 https://t.co/HIJ4vvcBIg
  • The Dow Jones could fall based on positioning signals, will the growth-linked Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar follow? If so, what are the technical barriers ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/yJrlR5C00P https://t.co/FzkIBlJLHG
  • Further gains in USD/IDR could be curbed as USD/PHP establishes a floor around 2017 lows. USD/MYR may fall next as USD/SGD fast approaches a key falling trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9JgZm2n8Fl https://t.co/FeBuqJ64qB
  • Japanese Yen Outlook Bullish on Coronavirus Surge, US Earnings Season https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2020/07/11/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-Bullish-on-Coronavirus-Surge-US-Earnings-Season.html
  • The New Zealand Dollar is aiming higher, with NZD/USD eyeing fresh yearly highs while AUD/NZD may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/osFxXvq5xF https://t.co/sKBkNvMvPz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/3qXauAsm2Q
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 nervously face the earnings season as coronavirus deaths could reimpose lockdowns. The DAX 30 eyes an EU rescue package as the FTSE 100 awaits GDP data. Get your #equities update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/A0k6JMMBOg https://t.co/iihbEYsfgi
  • It was a surprisingly quiet week in oil, with the net of this week’s price action showing a doji. But a longer-term formation has built that may open the door to that next trend. Get your #commodities update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/zz6M2ce55V https://t.co/UxlbpgLBkq
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/beKjEODs2y
Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook Dependent on UK Election Opinion Polls

Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook Dependent on UK Election Opinion Polls

2019-12-01 08:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:
GBPUSD 2-Hour Chart

GBP price fundamental forecast: neutral

  • Opinion polls ahead of the UK General Election on December 12 will dominate GBP trading in the coming week.
  • Larger poll leads for the ruling Conservative Party will likely lift Sterling while improvements by the Opposition Labour party will likely weaken it.
  • However, breaks out of recent narrow trading ranges are not expected until after the election results.

GBP trading dominated by UK General Election

Opinion polls ahead of the UK General Election on December 12 will dominate Sterling trading in the coming week, with continuing indications that the ruling Conservative Party will win an overall majority likely to boost GBP while any signs that the opposition Labour Party is catching up will likely weaken it.

The most recent polls have shown the Conservatives with a lead of between 7% and 11% but Labour has been catching up and traders will be waiting to see whether the Conservative lead dips to levels where a hung parliament – with no overall majority by any party – becomes a possibility.

That said, GBP has been trading within narrow ranges in recent days and it seems unlikely to break out until the election result becomes clear in the early hours of December 13. Attention will then return to Brexit and whether there is a Parliamentary majority for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal with the EU.

Brexit Timeline – The Path Ahead

GBP/USD Price Chart, Four-Hour Timeframe (October 15 – November 29, 2019)

GBPUSD 4-Hour Price Chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

There are few economic figures on the calendar in the week ahead, with final purchasing managers’ indexes for November the only data of note. The next Bank of England interest rate decision is not until December 19, a week after the election, so monetary policy will be sidelined in the next seven days.

For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events see the DailyFX Calendar

GBP/USD trader sentiment data bearish

As for retail trader positioning, the latest IG client sentiment data show 56.56% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.30 to 1. The number of traders net-long was3.86% higher on Friday than on Thursday and 14.14% higher than a week earlier, while the number of traders net-short was 2.84% lower than on Thursday and 0.99% lower than a week earlier. At Daily FX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD may fall. Traders were further net-long than on Thursday and a week earlier, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.