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Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook Under Pressure From Brexit and Parliament

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook Under Pressure From Brexit and Parliament

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBPUSD 2-Hour Price Chart

Sterling Price Forecast: Neutral

  • Brexit, a General Election and an EU extension.
  • UK data calendar light but heavyweight releases and events elsewhere.

Brand New Q4 2019 Sterling Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Sterling’s Upside is Limited as UK PM Calls for a General Election

UK PM Boris Johnson wants to call a General Election next week to try and break the Brexit deadlock but its seems unlikely that he will get the required numbers in Parliament needed to take the country to the polls. The Labour party continue to prevaricate and have said they will not vote for a GE unless no-deal is taken off the table. The European Union are discussing a further Brexit extension and while January 31, 2020 has been mooted, it seems that France is pushing back against such a long delay and may only agree to a one-month extension. All 27 members of the EU must agree the final date. If PM Johnson fails to get the votes required, Brexit discussions in Parliament may well end up gridlocked until one-side breaks. Against this background, Sterling is unlikely to push higher, and may well drift as recent GBP-bulls throw in the towel.

The UK data and events calendar next week is fairly thin but there are a host of high importance data releases and events elsewhere that will move various Sterling pairs. These events include Australian CPI, BoC rate decision, German unemployment and CPI, US Q3 GDP, FOMC rate decision and non-farm payrolls at the back-end of the week.

For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events please see the DailyFX Calendar

GBPUSD is currently at or just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with downside protection provided by the 50% Fib level and the 200-day moving average between 1.2670 and 1.2650. Bullish traders may point to the imminent 20-dma/200-dma as a positive signal.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (April – October 25, 2019)

Daily GBPUSD Price Chart

IG Client Sentiment shows that how traders are positioned in a wide range of assets and markets.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.