We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • ❗Heads Up Traders ❗ I will be covering the Australian CPI report later today starting at 00:15 GMT on Wednesday (in about 2 hours). Will be discussing the outlook for #AUD. Signup below! $AUDUSD $AUDJPY $AUDNZD $AUDCAD - https://t.co/tvAORI7bZf
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.29% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kx7ctSpXTf
  • It has been months since I updated this, but here is NYSE broker-level leverage (debt to cash balance) overlaid with the $SPX: https://t.co/Yv42OMEScH
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.73% Gold: -0.90% Silver: -3.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/EgueCnq9A8
  • RBNZ's Hawkesby says weakness in the New Zealand Dollar is giving New Zealand economy some support $NZD
  • FANGs to the rescue once again? Market sentiment could use the boost, that's for sure https://t.co/3hS7piOEdx
  • AAPL Earnings: EPS: $4.99 vs $4.55 exp Rev: $91.8B vs $88.5B exp $AAPL shares are 1.65% higher
  • RT @zerohedge: APPLE 1Q EPS $4.99, EST. $4.56 APPLE 1Q REV. $91.8B, EST. $88.38B
  • AAPL Earnings Earnings: EPS: $4.99 vs $4.55 exp Rev: $91.8B vs $88.5B exp $AAPL shares are 1.65% higher
  • $USD prices could be pressured lower if the FOMC reiterates its plans to continue organic balance sheet expansion to a similar magnitude of past QE phases for reserve management. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/vtIFhanGRU https://t.co/indCQN5EHB
GBP Fundamental Forecast: A Critical Week of Brexit Votes

GBP Fundamental Forecast: A Critical Week of Brexit Votes

2019-03-09 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:
GBP

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Expect Increased GBP Volatility Through the Week

  • It still looks unlikely that PM May’s Brexit Bill on Tuesday will be passed.
  • Sterling volatility is expected to increase further.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Next week the UK Parliament will vote on a series of Brexit Bills which will decide the short- and long-term future relationship between the UK and the EU. On Tuesday, PM May’s current Brexit Bill is re-presented to the House and is likely to be rejected again, although the margin will be slimmer than the sizeable 230 vote defeat in mid-January. If this is the case, on Wednesday the House will vote on whether a No Deal Brexit should be left on the negotiating table, leading the way to Article 50 extension vote on Thursday. As we stand, the EU remains unwilling to change any part of the Withdrawal Agreement, notably the Irish backstop, although both parties will continue talks over the weekend as both sides strive to avoid a potentially ruinous No Deal Brexit. While nothing has changed as we write, by this time next week there will be greater clarity on this long-running saga.

The domestic Economic data calendar is dominated by a raft of releases on Tuesday, including trade balance figures and industrial and manufacturing production numbers. While these remain important, the Brexit vote in the evening will dominate market thoughts.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD has edged lower over the week but remains resilient to larger downside moves. Part of the pair’s weakness is down to US dollar strength, but this may fade after today’s NFP figures which missed expectations by a large margin, although US wages data remained robust. The pair seem trapped between two Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.2894 (23.6%) and 1.3177 (38.2%), although further support is seen around 1.2935, where the bullish uptrend meets the 200-day moving average. One-week volatility has increased over the week – to take into account next week’s votes – and may well remain elevated as we head towards March 29.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – March 8, 2019)

GBPUSD

IG Client Sentiment data show 58.1% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggest that GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get astronger GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –Limps Into New Week, May Well Stay Down

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Forecast: 2019 Recovery at Risk as Near-Term Range Buckles

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.