0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Actual: 51.2 Previous: 53.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI (JUL) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 53.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 53.3 Expected: 53.6 Previous: 50.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 53.6 Previous: 50.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 💶 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 51.8 Expected: 51.1 Previous: 47.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 🇩🇪 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 51 Expected: 50 Previous: 45.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/Z4WgszEBoh
  • 🇮🇹 Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Actual: 51.9 Expected: 51.2 Previous: 47.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.31%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 79.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/n9V97YGVVi
  • Heads Up:💶 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 51.1 Previous: 47.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
GBP Fundamental Forecast: A Critical Week of Brexit Votes

GBP Fundamental Forecast: A Critical Week of Brexit Votes

2019-03-09 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:
GBP

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Expect Increased GBP Volatility Through the Week

  • It still looks unlikely that PM May’s Brexit Bill on Tuesday will be passed.
  • Sterling volatility is expected to increase further.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Next week the UK Parliament will vote on a series of Brexit Bills which will decide the short- and long-term future relationship between the UK and the EU. On Tuesday, PM May’s current Brexit Bill is re-presented to the House and is likely to be rejected again, although the margin will be slimmer than the sizeable 230 vote defeat in mid-January. If this is the case, on Wednesday the House will vote on whether a No Deal Brexit should be left on the negotiating table, leading the way to Article 50 extension vote on Thursday. As we stand, the EU remains unwilling to change any part of the Withdrawal Agreement, notably the Irish backstop, although both parties will continue talks over the weekend as both sides strive to avoid a potentially ruinous No Deal Brexit. While nothing has changed as we write, by this time next week there will be greater clarity on this long-running saga.

The domestic Economic data calendar is dominated by a raft of releases on Tuesday, including trade balance figures and industrial and manufacturing production numbers. While these remain important, the Brexit vote in the evening will dominate market thoughts.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD has edged lower over the week but remains resilient to larger downside moves. Part of the pair’s weakness is down to US dollar strength, but this may fade after today’s NFP figures which missed expectations by a large margin, although US wages data remained robust. The pair seem trapped between two Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.2894 (23.6%) and 1.3177 (38.2%), although further support is seen around 1.2935, where the bullish uptrend meets the 200-day moving average. One-week volatility has increased over the week – to take into account next week’s votes – and may well remain elevated as we head towards March 29.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – March 8, 2019)

GBPUSD

IG Client Sentiment data show 58.1% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggest that GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get astronger GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –Limps Into New Week, May Well Stay Down

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Forecast: 2019 Recovery at Risk as Near-Term Range Buckles

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.