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  • The latest US Conference Board consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since February, the headline reading dropping to 109.3, below expectations for 114.5. Get your $USD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • $SPX Daily . . Know the Levels. . . #SPX
  • ...that said, I like volatility; so by all means, bring in a person that gets these markets rocking and rolling again
  • Saying Powell is a dangerous man is disingenuous. The Fed has done very well with its dual mandate and their efforts to steady the markets for Main and Wall Street has further fed the financial bubbles we continue to blow. $VIX
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  • ...also worth noting, this is the Cable's biggest dive (-1.15% at present) since Sep 10, 2020
  • While EURUSD is still holding the floor on its nearly year-long range, $GBPUSD looks like it is making a play for its head-and-shoulders 'neckline' break with this 1.3600 break
  • With the charge in Treasury yields after the debt ceiling warning today, I'm going to move the likes of $TLT (the iShares 20+ year Treasury ETF) closer to the top of my watch list. Let's see where volume ends up today
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GBP Fundamental Forecast: Positive Brexit Sentiment Feeding Through

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Positive Brexit Sentiment Feeding Through

Nick Cawley, Strategist
British Pound

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Deal or No Deal

  • It is looking more likely that PM May’s Brexit deal or a short delay to Article 50 are likely.
  • Heavyweight rate decisions and data releases will steer a variety of GBP-pairs.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

A good week for GBP-bulls with Sterling making gains across the board on improving Brexit sentiment. While nothing has yet been agreed, or any other options offered by the EU, the general market belief is that a hard Brexit is increasingly unlikely. While this may well be the case, there is still a small chance that the UK leaves the EU on March 29 by default with No Deal, so care still needs to be taken when trading or positioning Sterling.

In the UK, the latest PMI data will be closely watched, especially as both the services and composite reading currently sit just above the 50 expansion/contraction level and a dip below would generate multiple negative headlines. There are also central bank rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. In addition, there are also the latest US Fed Beige Book and the monthly US non-farm payroll release. Released later in the week.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD broke the noted 1.3300 level earlier in the week but struggled to stay above that level. A clear breach and close above here would signal further upside for the pair, although Brexit talk, and news flow will continue to direct Sterling in the short-term.

Sterling (GBP) Soars: No Deal Brexit Talk Sidelines BoE Testimony.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – March 1, 2019)

GBPUSD Price Chart

IG Client Sentiment data show 48.0% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggest that GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get amixed GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast :

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Faces Busy Data Week, May Struggle For Gains

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.