We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • What is the @ecb (European Central Bank)? What are the key mandates of the bank and how can it affect the #forex market? Find out: https://t.co/romV4hPQJv https://t.co/4nlCaUNhpD
  • Your psychology has a significant impact on the decisions you make, particularly if you are new to trading. How can you avoid your emotions from turning you into a #FOMO trader? Find out: https://t.co/FC7CHpk9vA #FOMOintrading https://t.co/WSDr3JkpAG
  • $AUDUSD: Short-term support could lead-in to a quick bounce up to resistance as taken from another prior support level, plotted around the .6830 level on the chart. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/tUoe1Roo5t https://t.co/omaDxGNhZU
  • Central bank independence has several advantages. Find out what they are in detail with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/cQQmuH8biQ
  • The US Dollar remains in consolidation mode against the Philippine Peso and Indian Rupee. Will the Singapore Dollar weaken as $USDSGD rising support holds ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/6PCFkdj3ka
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/Da10QUg9r1
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/Le8Qx6OOwV
  • $GBPUSD at the moment break-even straddles = 152pips meaning that for option traders to realize gains, the spot price must see a move greater than 152pips. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/odj2lLRrGf https://t.co/RXCBwHGluG
  • $EURGBP has fallen over 6% since August and is now rapidly approaching a critical support level not reached since May. Will a break below accelerate the aggressive selloff? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/CBM8Fg7vM0 https://t.co/0yDnEpzQqR
  • The #Euro is struggling for direction against the US Dollar but the near-term downtrend guiding it lower since late June remains firmly intact. Where is $EURUSD heading? Get your technical analysis from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/us6AINmuoe https://t.co/J4hQtyprYf
GBP Fundamental Forecast: Sterling Refuses to Believe in No Deal Brexit

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Sterling Refuses to Believe in No Deal Brexit

2019-02-23 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

GBP/ USD

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Is Sterling getting carried away?
  • Sterling pairs likely to be volatile.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

The British Pound is ending the week higher, but off its best levels, as Brexit sentiment remains marginally positive despite any mitigating commentary. The UK political landscape fractured during the week with three Conservative and eight Labour MPs resigning their roles, leaving both parties increasingly vulnerable in any future votes in the House of Commons. Further resignations are rumored from both sides, while there is also talk that up to 100 Conservative MPs may revolt and demand that PM Theresa May delays leaving the EU if a No Deal Brexit remains on the table.

Despite this political upheaval, Sterling pushed higher during the week, aided by slightly better-than-expected UK jobs figures, leaving GBP vulnerable to a sharper downturn if the EU continues to refuse to agree to any compromise on the Irish backstop impasse. The EU and UK have agreed that talks ‘should now continue urgently at a technical level’ as the Brexit clock continues its count down.

Sterling volatility will also be driven by a raft of high importance events and speeches next week, including FOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s Semi-Annual Testimony to the House Panel on Wednesday, the first look at German CPI and US GDP on Thursday and Canadian GDP data on Friday. UK PM Theresa May will also tell Parliament about any progress made in negotiations with the EU. If the PM comes back from discussions empty handed, Parliament will discuss various ways of moving forward and hold non-binding votes on these alternative plans.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (April 2018 – February 22, 2019)

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart

IG Client Sentiment data show 54.3% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundemental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Market May be Calmer, But Watch Trade Headlines

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices Risk Overbought RSI Signal Despite Record U.S Output

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.