News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/cwSWCpKtaj
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zu5hMovbz6
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/QMKyTBOKNG
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/aRkGoNvj6D
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/ltVTNO2sjT
  • GBP/USD clears the May low (1.3801) as the Federal Reserve forecasts two rate hikes for 2023. Get your $GBP market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/WdTG2niAKz https://t.co/2j02VyH0wm
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
GBP Fundamental Forecast: Sterling Refuses to Believe in No Deal Brexit

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Sterling Refuses to Believe in No Deal Brexit

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBP/ USD

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Is Sterling getting carried away?
  • Sterling pairs likely to be volatile.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

The British Pound is ending the week higher, but off its best levels, as Brexit sentiment remains marginally positive despite any mitigating commentary. The UK political landscape fractured during the week with three Conservative and eight Labour MPs resigning their roles, leaving both parties increasingly vulnerable in any future votes in the House of Commons. Further resignations are rumored from both sides, while there is also talk that up to 100 Conservative MPs may revolt and demand that PM Theresa May delays leaving the EU if a No Deal Brexit remains on the table.

Despite this political upheaval, Sterling pushed higher during the week, aided by slightly better-than-expected UK jobs figures, leaving GBP vulnerable to a sharper downturn if the EU continues to refuse to agree to any compromise on the Irish backstop impasse. The EU and UK have agreed that talks ‘should now continue urgently at a technical level’ as the Brexit clock continues its count down.

Sterling volatility will also be driven by a raft of high importance events and speeches next week, including FOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s Semi-Annual Testimony to the House Panel on Wednesday, the first look at German CPI and US GDP on Thursday and Canadian GDP data on Friday. UK PM Theresa May will also tell Parliament about any progress made in negotiations with the EU. If the PM comes back from discussions empty handed, Parliament will discuss various ways of moving forward and hold non-binding votes on these alternative plans.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (April 2018 – February 22, 2019)

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart

IG Client Sentiment data show 54.3% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundemental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Market May be Calmer, But Watch Trade Headlines

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices Risk Overbought RSI Signal Despite Record U.S Output

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES