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GBP Fundamental Forecast: Positive Backdrop, Bullish Outlook

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Positive Backdrop, Bullish Outlook

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBP

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Brexit continues to shift towards a soft outcome as No Deal is priced-out.
  • Positive sentiment and supportive technical fuel the rally.

The DailyFX Q1GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Bullish

We have changed our Sterling outlook to bullish for the near-term and would take a positive bias on sell-offs in the current climate. While Brexit retains the ability to generate an unexpected headline or two, wrecking even the best made plans, the overall sense is that a Soft Brexit is the most likely outcome and there is now a hardened opposition against the UK leaving the EU without a deal. The Irish Border question still has not been answered but it seems - according to media reports - that UK PM Theresa May has talked the DUP around to voting for her Plan B, suggesting that a solution has been found to this long-running problem.

Across the board GBP has had a good week, hitting multi-week and multi-month levels. As we write, the market has erased a small portion of these gains, but this is a natural occurrence in a strong market and provides another positive signal for Sterling. We have looked at various GBP-pairs over the week and the levels and bias remain intact despite today’s book squaring. In addition to the three pairs below, GBPJPY and GBPCAD also provide opportunities going forward.

3 Sterling (GBP) Pairs Traders Should Watch as Brexit Talks Continue.

Sterling also received a small uplift this week from better-than-expected UK jobs and wages data, that suggest that BoE Governor Carney will be busy if/when the Brexit is resolved. Next week, PM May’s Plan B is put before the House and the vote will provide more information on the swing towards a soft Brexit. The economic calendar shows no high impact data releases in the UK market.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 25, 2019)

GBP/USD

IG Client Sentiment data show 47.9% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests that GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. However, the combination of recent daily and weekly positional changes gives us a stronger bullish contrarian bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Look Past CPI Report for the Fed and US Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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