News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 8 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with 69.5% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Financials (+0.61%) and information technology (+0.56%) outperformed, while healthcare (-0.73%) and real estate (-0.59%) trailed behind.
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
GBP: Brexit Stuck in a Rut, UK PM May on a Tightrope

GBP: Brexit Stuck in a Rut, UK PM May on a Tightrope

Nick Cawley, Strategist
Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • EU Summit – same old, same old.
  • Storm clouds gather for UK PM May.

The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast is available to download.

We remain neutral on Sterling in the short-term after yet another failed EU Summit meeting with the Irish border problem the main sticking point. Once again, the EU voiced that negotiations were progressing well but said that the UK must go away and come back with another solution to the hard border if negotiations are to progress. PM May called on the EU to be inventive but left the Brussels summit empty-handed. We did consider turning Sterling negative, but the risk/reward ratio does not favor this stance as yet.

One area of discussion that both sides touched upon was an extension of the transition period – currently ending in December 2020 – as a way of giving the UK more time to find a border solution. This would be a limited extension but would entail the UK continuing to make payments to the EU. This extension is unlikely to find many backers in the Conservative Party and there is already talk that Prime Minister may face a leadership challenge/vote of no confidence over the coming months. As such, Brexit sentiment remains negative.

The UK data calendar is clear next week and market attention will begin to focus on the Autumn Budget at the end of the month and the Bank of England monetary policy meeting on November1.

On Mondays we take an in-depth look at important UK data releases, Brexit and other UK asset market drivers at 10:30GMT in our UK Key Events and Markets Webinar.

IG Client Sentimentdata show that retail investorsare 66.2% net-long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly shifts in sentiment give us a strong GBPUSD bearish bias.

GBPUSD continues to slide lower, aided by a mildly-hawkish FOMC statement that fueled the next leg of the US dollar rally. With US interest rates, and Treasury bond yields, rising, a weak Sterling has nowhere to go but lower in the short-term.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart – October 19, 2018

GBP: Brexit Stuck in a Rut, UK PM May on a Tightrope

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Price at Risk to Political Uncertainty, Fed Bets, BoC Rate Hike

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Joins Macro Headlines For Busy October As Stockpiles Build

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.