News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
GBP: Sterling Building a Base on Brexit Hopes

GBP: Sterling Building a Base on Brexit Hopes

2018-10-06 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:
Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Bullish

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Sterling continues its slow march higher with gains across a range of currencies, including a strong US dollar.
  • EU President Donald Tusk says a Canada+++ deal remains on the table.

The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast is available to download.

Sterling remains better bid and bullish in the short- to medium-term after the Conservative Party conference passes without any challenge to PM Theresa May, while talk out of Brussels turns firmly to getting a trade deal in place, despite ongoing differences over the Irish border. GBPUSD is getting back to its best level of the week, and will likely extend this move, as the uptrend off the August 15 low at 1.2662 continues. Against the euro – the best Brexit barometer – the pound hit a 2 month+ high and is now looking to break below the 0.8800 level, a price last seen at the start of July.

The driver for the move is a slight shift in Brexit negotiations from arguing and being negative – on both sides – to moving forward and actively seeking a trade agreement that both sides can accept. While UK PM Theresa May continues to put forward the unpopular Chequers plan, which will not get past either the UK Parliament or Brussels in its current guise, the EU have repeated that a special deal – Canada+++ - remains on the table and ready to be signed. The +++ in the deal is still open to interpretation and may give both sides the necessary flexibility going forward to get a deal agreed.

Looking ahead, Sterling remains a ‘buy on dips’ as long as the positive trend continues, although should be cognizant of a raft of medium-importance data on the slate next Wednesday. The comprehensive DailyFX Economic Calendar for the week ahead provides traders with updated data and forecasts across all major currencies. On Monday we will be taking are regular in-depth look at important UK data releases, Brexit and other UK asset market drivers at 10:30GMT in our UK Key Events and Markets Webinar.

IG Client Sentimentdata show that retail investorsare 60.8% net-long GBPUSD, normally a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly shifts in sentiment give us a mixed trading bias.

GBPUSD Weekly Price Chart (December 2017 – October 5, 2018)

GBP: Sterling Building a Base on Brexit Hopes

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - New Zealand Dollar Braces as Emerging Markets, Stocks Vulnerable

Japanese Yen Forecast – Bearish RSI Signal Emerges Ahead of U.S. CPI

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES