News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Short-term uncertainties to keep the pressure on equity markets. Get your weekly equities forecast from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
GBP: Lack of Data Leaves Sterling Adrift

GBP: Lack of Data Leaves Sterling Adrift

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBP: Lack of Data Leaves Sterling Adrift

Talking Points:

  • Weak UK Services PMI pinned on bad weather.
  • Next week’s data calendar is thin.
  • Sterling crosses to be steered by other currencies with USD to the fore.

The DailyFX Q2 Trading Forecast for GBP is now available.

How are Retail Traders Currently Positioned in GBPUSD and why does it matter?

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

We have changed our outlook for GBP to neutral from bullishon a lack of any positive hard data this week while a fairly light economic calendar next week will not help traders in their decision making process. While GBP has fallen from our last bullish call, we did advise two weeks ago not to chase prices and to buy on dips.

This week’s data prints disappointed overall with construction and services PMIs both sharply lower, due to the recent spell of bad weather in the UK. Overall the composite PMI edged just 0.1% lower on the month with a decent beat in UK manufacturing providing support. Car buyers also kept their hands in their pockets with new car sales dumping 15.7% YoY.

GBP: Lack of Data Leaves Sterling Adrift

Going forward, the worry is that the sharp fall in the dominant services sector will drag Q1 GDP down to 0.3%, a touch lower than market expectations of 0.4%. The PMI surveys also showed that March UK GDP was just 0.15% due to the ‘Beast from the East’. While the bad weather has been factored in – next month’s PMIs are expected to jump back – any additional weakness in UK hard data may weigh on GBP ahead of the Bank of England’s expected 0.25% rate hike in May. This week’s UK data releases are minimal, leaving Sterling at the whim of other currencies, especially the USD which is starting to gain strength despite the ongoing US-China trade war and NAFTA negotiations.

GBPUSD Price Chart Four Hour Timeframe (February 26 – April 6, 2018)

GBP: Lack of Data Leaves Sterling Adrift

IG Client Sentiment data show 46.8% of traders are net-long GBPUSD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.14 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 21 when GBPUSD traded near 1.40037; price has moved 0.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 9.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.3% lower than yesterday and 8.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

You can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.