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GBP The Song Remains The Same - Brexit

Talking Points:

  • Hawkish commentary from BoE deputy governor gives GBP an early boost.
  • A lack of any progress, and more negative EU talk, on Brexit hits GBP lower
  • PM May has laid out the UK’s ‘Road to Brexit’ – what next from the EU?

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

We continue to remain neutral on Sterling, and will likely remain this way, until some clear progress has been made in the ongoing EU/UK post-Brexit trade talks. We noted last week that a GBP sell-off may offer opportunities and while this may still be the case, we will take a risk-neutral stance and watch from the sidelines.

At the start of the week GBP got an upward boost when BoE deputy governor Sir David Ramsden indicated that UK interest rates may need to be raised sooner than expected if wage growth picks up. This hawkish tilt is in contrast to the deputy governors voting at the November policy meeting when he was one of only two members who voted for rates to remain unchanged.

The British Pound then spent the rest of the week slipping lower after European Council President Donald Tusk warned of a hard border in Ireland – something that is totally unacceptable to the UK government - before labelling the UK’s stance on Brexit as ‘pure illusion’.

Ahead the UK calendar offers little hard data of note week, with attention turning to the next Brexit salvos from both sides of the negotiating table. EURGBP has picked up over the week but remains in the medium-term trading and is unlikely to break-out, either way, until Brexit negotiations produce some clear evidence that talks are moving forward. Until then…..

EURGBP Price Chart Daily Timeframe (March 2017 – March 2, 2018)

GBP The Song Remains The Same - Brexit

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

You can contact the author via email at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.