News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold has been trending lower after failing to clear resistance in the $1835 area earlier this month. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DColmanFX here:
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
GBP: A Self-Imposed Spell On The Sidelines

GBP: A Self-Imposed Spell On The Sidelines

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBP: A Self-Imposed Spell On The Sidelines

Talking Points:

  • GBP remains stuck in a ruck against the EUR with a breakout unlikely in the short-term.
  • GBP/USD is moving on the changing fortunes of the US dollar
  • Heavyweight UK data nears and there’s no reason to get in its way.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

We changed our previously bullish outlook on GBP to neutral last week, citing ongoing Brexit concerns, and we remain on the sidelines this week with little to spark a bullish or bearish conviction.

Brexit talks took a slightly more considered approach late this week when the EU said that they would a ‘punishment clause’ from their Brexit rules and regulations, due to vocal opposition from both the UK and various EU members who thought the measures overly punitive. Whether the clause should have been inserted in the first place is a moot point. As we write, UK PM May is readying herself to speak with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the outcome of this discussion could give some hints to EU talks in the month ahead of the European Council summit on March 22-23. Despite ongoing difficulties in trying to form a ruling party in Germany, Chancellor Merkel’s opinion is highly valued within the EU and as such should be monitored closely by sterling traders.

On the UK data docket next week, December employment and wages data on Wednesday could provoke a reaction in GBP while on Thursday Q4 GDP numbers will be released. This is the second look at the UK fourth-quarter growth figures. The second quarter estimate of GDP is based on additional data and is produced later than the first estimate and provides a more precise indication of economic growth.

Sterling remains range bound against the Euro and is unable to break out of the 0.86900 – 0.90300 range that has held firm since mid-September 2017, while against the US dollar sterling has shown slightly more volatility with a tendency to push to the upside. A lot of the movement in GBPUSD has been UD dollar driven and until the higher US yields/lower US dollar conundrum has been fully explained, we advise a wait-and-see approach in the week ahead.

GBP/USD Price Chart Daily Timeframe (September 2017 – February 16, 2018)

GBP: A Self-Imposed Spell On The Sidelines

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.